Suppose identical tags are placed on both the left ear and the right ear of a fox. The fox is then let loose for a period of time. Consider the two events C1={left ear tag is lost}and C2={left ear tag is lost}. Let π = P(C1)= P(C2), and assume C1 and C2 are independent events. Derive an expression (involving _) for the probability that exactly one tag is lost, given that at most one is lost (“Ear Tag Loss in Red Foxes,” J. Wildlife Mgmt., 1976: 164–167). [Hint: Draw a tree diagram in which the two initial branches refer to whether the left ear tag was lost.]
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