Problem

A quality control inspector is inspecting newly produced items for faults. The inspector...

A quality control inspector is inspecting newly produced items for faults. The inspector searches an item for faults in a series of independent fixations, each of a fixed duration. Given that a flaw is actually present, let p denote the probability that the flaw is detected during any one fixation (this model is discussed in “Human Performance in Sampling

Inspection,” Human Factors, 1979: 99–105).

a. Assuming that an item has a flaw, what is the probability that it is detected by the end of the second fixation (once a flaw has been detected, the sequence of fixations terminates)?

b. Give an expression for the probability that a flaw will be detected by the end of the nth fixation.

c. If when a flaw has not been detected in three fixations, the item is passed, what is the probability that a flawed item will pass inspection?

d. Suppose 10% of all items contain a flaw [P (randomly chosen item is flawed) = .1]. With the assumption of part (c), what is the probability that a randomly chosen item will pass inspection (it will automatically pass if it is not flawed, but could also pass if it s flawed)?

e. Given that an item has passed inspection (no flaws in three fixations), what is the probability that it is actually flawed? Calculate for p = .5.

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