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Consider a project to supply Detroit with 28,000 tons of machine screws annually for automobile production. You will need an

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Answer #1

Following is the calculation of CF:

Particulars Remark Year 0 Years 1-4 Year 5
Units Given 28000 28000
SP Given $344 $344
Sales 28000x344 $ 96,32,000.00 $ 96,32,000.00
Per unit vc Given $235.00 $235.00
Variable cost 28000x235 $ 65,80,000.00 $ 65,80,000.00
Fixed Cost Given $ 12,50,000.00 $ 12,50,000.00
Depriciation Calculated below $ 10,40,000.00 $ 10,40,000.00
EBT Sales-VC-FC-DEP $    7,62,000.00 $    7,62,000.00
Tax 0.24*EBT $    1,82,880.00 $    1,82,880.00
EAT EBT-Tax $    5,79,120.00 $    5,79,120.00
OCF EAT+DEP $ 16,19,120.00 $ 16,19,120.00
Fixed investment Given -5200000
Working capital investment or recovery -500000 $500,000.00
After tax salvage value 625000 x (1-0.24) $475,000.00
CF

OCF+Fixed investment+Working capital investment

+After tax salvage value

$-57,00,000.00 $16,19,120.00
$25,94,120.00

Depreciation = fixed investment/life = 5200000/5 =  $10,40,000.00

NPV is calculated below:

Year CF Discount Factor Discounted CF
0 $   -57,00,000.00 1/(1+0.13)^0= 1 1*-5700000= $   -57,00,000.00
1 $    16,19,120.00 1/(1+0.13)^1= 0.884955752 0.884955752212389*1619120= $     14,32,849.56
2 $    16,19,120.00 1/(1+0.13)^2= 0.783146683 0.783146683373796*1619120= $     12,68,008.46
3 $    16,19,120.00 1/(1+0.13)^3= 0.693050162 0.693050162277696*1619120= $     11,22,131.38
4 $    16,19,120.00 1/(1+0.13)^4= 0.613318728 0.613318727679377*1619120= $       9,93,036.62
5 $    25,94,120.00 1/(1+0.13)^5= 0.542759936 0.542759935999449*2594120= $     14,07,984.41
NPV = Sum of all Discounted CF $       5,24,010.42

Now if we increase the quantity by 1%, the CF for years 1-4 becomes:

Particulars Year 1-4 Year 5
Units $                     28,280.00 $                     28,280.00
SP $                           344.00 $                           344.00
Sales $               97,28,320.00 $               97,28,320.00
Per unit vc $                           235.00 $                           235.00
Variable cost $               66,45,800.00 $               66,45,800.00
Fixed Cost $               12,50,000.00 $               12,50,000.00
Depriciation $               10,40,000.00 $               10,40,000.00
EBT $                 7,92,520.00 $                 7,92,520.00
Tax $                 1,90,204.80 $                 1,90,204.80
EAT $                 6,02,315.20 $                 6,02,315.20
CF $               16,42,315.20 $               16,42,315.20
Working capital investment or recovery $500,000.00
After tax salvage value $475,000.00
CF $26,17,315.20

So the change in CF for 1-4 years is  $16,42,315.20/$16,19,120.00 -1 = 1.43%
So the change in NPV is   $6,05,593.30/ $5,24,010.42 -1 = 16%

Now the minimum level of output below which you dont want to operate would be when NPV = 0, this can be found out using hit and trial or excel's goal seek function:

Using excel it comes out as 26,201.55 units, as it is tonnes, so fractional units is possible.

Particulars Year 1-4 Year 5
Units $        26,201.55 $        26,201.55
SP $              344.00 $              344.00
Sales $ 90,13,332.43 $ 90,13,332.43
Per unit vc $              235.00 $              235.00
Variable cost $ 61,57,363.73 $ 61,57,363.73
Fixed Cost $ 12,50,000.00 $ 12,50,000.00
Depriciation $ 10,40,000.00 $ 10,40,000.00
EBT $    5,65,968.71 $    5,65,968.71
Tax $    1,35,832.49 $    1,35,832.49
EAT $    4,30,136.22 $    4,30,136.22
CF $ 14,70,136.22 $ 14,70,136.22
Working capital investment or recovery $500,000.00
After tax salvage value $475,000.00
CF $24,45,136.22
Year CF Discount Factor Discounted CF
0 $   -57,00,000.00 1/(1+0.13)^0= 1 1*-5700000= $   -57,00,000.00
1 $    14,70,136.22 1/(1+0.13)^1= 0.884955752 0.884955752212389*1470136.21735312= $     13,01,005.50
2 $    14,70,136.22 1/(1+0.13)^2= 0.783146683 0.783146683373796*1470136.21735312= $     11,51,332.30
3 $    14,70,136.22 1/(1+0.13)^3= 0.693050162 0.693050162277696*1470136.21735312= $     10,18,878.14
4 $    14,70,136.22 1/(1+0.13)^4= 0.613318728 0.613318727679377*1470136.21735312= $       9,01,662.07
5 $    24,45,136.22 1/(1+0.13)^5= 0.542759936 0.542759935999449*2445136.21735312= $     13,27,121.98
NPV = Sum of all Discounted CF $                    -0.00
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