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6. Tim observes the returns of his portfolio in the last 30 trading sdays. His ten lowest daily returns: -16%, -14%, -9%, -7%
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Answer #1

Part (a)

For 10% VaR, find the value of the (30 observations x 10% + 1)th observations from worst to best. Hence we need the value of the 30 x 10% + 1 = 4th worst return which is -7%.

Hence, 10% Var = 7%

Meaning: We can say with 1 - 10% = 90% confidence that the daily loss of the portfolio will not exceed 7%

Part (b)

Expected shortfall = Average of worst (10% x 30 =) 3 observations = (16% + 14% + 9%) / 3 = 13%

Meaning:  In 10% of the cases, the expected losses of the portfolio is 13%

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