Question

3. Self-Fulfilling Beliefs: There is a large literature in sociology and social psychology revolv- ing around the idea that individuals make choices in fear of discrimination which result in (at least) the appearance of discrimination. (Hence, the fears are self-fulfilling.) Consider two jobs E and S and two types of workers m and w. Each type of worker must make a decision regarding which occupation to enter. In job E there is a 50% chance that a worker of any type will earn $50,000 per year. In job S there is a 50% that a worker of any type will earn $42,000 4 (a) Given this framework, what occupation should each type of worker choose? If wages are a proxy for the social benefits of each occupation, is this distribution of workers efficient? (b) Suppose the above probabilities are objective and that individuals bias there beliefs based on the existing demographic make-up of the occupations. Suppose that job E has predominantly type m workers and job S has predominantly type w workers. How might a type w worker form beliefs about her chance of success in each profession? (c) Suppose that type m workers bias their beliefs regarding success in job & by 10% while type w workers bias there beliefs of failure in job & by 10% What jobs will each type of worker choose? What will be the demographic composition of the two professions? If wages are a proxy for the social benefits of each occupation, is this distribution of workers efficient? (d) In terms of future workers in each occupation, how do the demographics in each occu- pation alter the expectations and perceptions of potential workers? (e) Discuss the problem of identifying discrimination in this context. What is the difficulty of a program like affirmative action in a context such as this? (f) Suppose that employers have biased beliefs rather than employees. Additionally, suppose that there is a distribution of skills making some type m workers and some type w workers better at job & than job S. If no screening mechanism is available, how might employer biases result in statistical discrimination?

Answer 1

Self-fulfilling prophecy refers to the socio-psychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this “prediction” or expectation comes true simply because one believes it willand their resulting behaviors align to fulfil those beliefs. This suggests peoples' beliefs influence their actions. The principle behind this phenomenon is people create consequences regarding people or events, based on their previous knowledge toward that specific subject. Additionally, self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable to negative and positive outcomes.

American sociologist William Isaac Thomas was the first to discover this phenomenon. In 1928 he developed the Thomas theorem (also known as the Thomas dictum), stating,

“

If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.

”

In other words, the consequence will come to fruition based on how one interprets the situation. Using Thomas' idea, another American sociologist, Robert K. Merton, coined the term self-fulfilling prophecy, popularizing the idea “...a belief or expectation, correct or incorrect, could bring about a desired or expected outcome.