Cases in Probability
| A Bayes Theorem Case | |
|
Three manufacturing processes, A, B and C, produce wheel bearings. Proportions of the bearings produced by the processes are: 60%, 30% and 10%, respectively. Expected percentages of defective bearing manufactured by the processes are 2%, 3% and 5%, respectively. |
 |
|
An inspection has randomly selected a
defectivebearing. What is the probability that the
bearing was produced by process B |
|
Homework Answers
P(defective)=P(from A and defective)+P(from B and defective)+P(from C and defective)
=0.6*0.02+0.3*0.03+0.1*0.05=0.026
hence P(from process B given defective)
=P(from B and defective)/P(defective)=0.3*0.03/0.026=0.346154
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