Describe business forcasting and the usage and pitfalls in 175 words, please type response.
Business forecasting the estimation of the business prospects or growth levels in the upcoming future. This may mean to forecast the profits, growth in sales and assets growth in the future for a particular business. The purpose of conducting a forecasting exercise is to have an idea about how much the current business can go up to in the current scenario. It is one of the most important parts of operations. Many firms make use of many forecasting techniques like simple moving average, exponential smoothing, linear trend, and regression. This helps them to have a general idea about the levels of business (sales, profits) which the firm can achieve for a given future variable like time or number of guests.
The business forecasting helps the firms to know whether the given trend will make the firm’s operations profitable or not in the long run. This also communicates whether changes in the economic cycle (seasonality) will have any effects on the operational levels of the firm. Many times, a business forecast is influenced by past factors or levels of business.
Pitfalls of business forecasting
1. The business forecast model used may not fully represent the current scenario, leading to distorted forecast which may make unreliable decisions.
2. The tenure of forecast (short or long) may not be apt for a given scenario, leading to unreliable forecast numbers.
3. The weights given to the past levels may not be fully representative of the upcoming future.
4. The seasonality used for the current model may not match the upcoming trend. In other words, past trends may not repeat themselves in the future.
5. The business forecasting should only be used as a representation of what can the future state be like. It should not be completely relied upon and a risk factor should always be considered.
Describe business forcasting and the usage and pitfalls in 175 words, please type response.
Describe phases and planning in product management in at least 175 words, please type response.
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