Homework Answers
(a) &(b)
(f)
The leastsquare line for predicting next year's
unemployment fro this year's inflation
Y=4.2488+0.5174x(inflation).
(g) Predict next year's unemployment if this years's inflation
is 6%
Sol:Y=4.2488+0.5174x(inflation).
Y=4.2488+0.5174*0.06
Y=4.279
year X (L1) Inflation Y(L2) Unemployment 1981 8.9 9.7 1982 3.8 9.6 1983 3.8 7.5 1984 3.9 7.2 1985 3.8 7 1986 1.1 1987 4.4 5.5 1988 4.4 5.3 1989 4.6 5.6 1990 6.1 5. 5. & 8 5 1991 8.1 2.9 6.9 1992 1993 2.7 6.1 5.6 1994 2.7 5 2.5 5.4 1995 1996 3.3 4.9 1.7 1997 1998 4.5 4.2 1.6 1999 2.7 4 2000 3.4 4.7 2001 1.6 5.8 2002 2.4 6 2003 1.9 5.5 2004 3.3 5.1 2005 4.6 3.4 2.5 2006 4.6 2007 4.1 5.8 2008
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.56140354 R Square 0.315173935 Adjusted R Square 0.287780893 Standard Error 1.215716352 Observations 27 ANOVA df Significance F 0.002312462 1 Regression Residual Total SS MS F 17.00491785 17.00492 11.50562 36.94915623 1.477966 53.95407407 25 26 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value 4.248816106 0.562835142 7.548953 6.66E-08 0.517460984 0.152553649 3.391993 0.002312 Lower 95% Upper 95%ower 95.09pper 95.0% 3.089635441 5.407997 3.089635 5.407997 Intercept X Variable 1 0.203270866 0.831651 0.203271 0.831651
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INN
MARGIN
ROOMS
NEAREST
OFFICE
COLLEGE
INCOME
DISTTWN
1
61
3203
0.1
549
8
37
12.1
2
34
2810
1.5
496
17.5
39
0.4
3
46
2890
1.9
254
20
39
12.2
4
31.9
3422
1
434
15.5
36
2.7
5
57.4
2687
3.4
678
15.5
32
7.9
6
47.5
3080
2.4
488
13.5
31
6.7
7
54.4
2756
1.1
832
14.5
35
6.9
8
46.2
2244
0.7
496
15.5
38
8.9
9
54.1
2862
1.4
809
16.5
33
3...
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1
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140
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404
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45
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4
54.4
3234
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649
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35
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5
34.5
2730
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6
44.9
3003
3.4
402
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37
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7
46
2341
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45
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8
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PR(v) =
PS(v)*PN(v) =
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(* symbol means convolution process, in the solution of this
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NEAREST
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INCOME
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1
61
3203
0.1
549
8
37
12.1
2
34
2810
1.5
496
17.5
39
0.4
3
46
2890
1.9
254
20
39
12.2
4
31.9
3422
1
434
15.5
36
2.7
5
57.4
2687
3.4
678
15.5
32
7.9
6
47.5
3080
2.4
488
13.5
31
6.7
7
54.4
2756
1.1
832
14.5
35
6.9
8
46.2
2244
0.7
496
15.5
38
8.9
9
54.1
2862
1.4
809
16.5
33
3...
INN
MARGIN
ROOMS
NEAREST
OFFICE
COLLEGE
INCOME
DISTTWN
1
44.2
3471
2.1
523
12
35
9.4
2
29.8
3567
1.8
140
13.5
42
5.7
3
38.4
3264
1.6
404
22.5
45
4.4
4
54.4
3234
1.1
649
19.5
35
6.5
5
34.5
2730
4
171
17
41
10.5
6
44.9
3003
3.4
402
15.5
37
4.6
7
46
2341
2
580
23
45
7.4
8
50.2
3021
2.6
572
8.5
33
9.3
9
46
2655
3.2
666
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40
6.7...
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