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Our stats lecture this week is on correlations and regression. Describe the error in the conclusion...

Our stats lecture this week is on correlations and regression.

Describe the error in the conclusion here:
Given - Researchers find a positive linear correlation between the number of cigarettes smoked and the pulse rate of individuals in two separate samples of people.
Conclusion - Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase.

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Answer #1

The given statement is

Researchers find a positive linear correlation between the number of cigarettes smoked and the pulse rate of individuals in two seperate samples of people.

From this statement, it is concluded,

Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase.

Now, this conclusion is erroneous; this is because of the fact that correlation is only a measure of positive association between two variables, and does not imply causation.

ie. high positive correlation between the number of cigarettes smoked and the pulse rate of indiviuals, do not imply that cigarettes cause pulse rate to increase. There could be a variable underlying in the study, that causes pulse rates to increase.

Therefore the error in this conclusion is, the positive correlation between the two variables does not mean that one causes the another, because "Correlation does not imply causation".

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