Question

Describe the error in the conclusion. Given: There is a linear correlation between the number of cigarettes smoked and the pulse rate. As the number of cigarettes increases the pulse rate increases. Conclusion: Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase. Discuss causation vs. relationships.

Answer 1

So this is a case of the comparison between correlation and causation.

Since we find that there is a linear relationship (correlation) between the number of cigarettes smoked and the pulse rate i.e. as the number of cigarettes smoked increases the pulse rate increases as well, we wrongly conclude that Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase. Cigarettes may be one of the factors that may cause pulse rate to increase but it may not be solely responsible for the increase in pulse rate. There are a lot of hidden factors, confounding factors that are not taken into account. These factors include the age of the smoker, the fitness level, the economic status, the level of risk/stress in job among other factors that may cause an increase in the pulse rate. Since these factors are not taken into account while calculating the correlation, hence we cannot conclude that Cigarettes cause the pulse rate to increase, without accounting for these confounding variables. This is the erorr in the conclusion drawn.

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