Question

forcast , time series question.

(a) The values of the smoothing constants, a, y, and 8 for Holt-Winters method fall between 0 and 1. Explain what happens when each of them approaches or equals the values 0 and 1. (b) It has been found that quarterly sales of some sports drinks over 8 years has the multiplicative Holt-Winters optimum smoothing constants a=0.3, y = 0.1, and 8=0.2. It is also given that the final estimates for 131 = 168.1, 631 = 2.3, sn28 = 0.7, sn29 = 1.1, sn30 = 1.3, and sn31 = 0.9, with y32 = 150. (i) Compute 132, b32, and sn32 (ii) Suppose in the first quarter for year 9 we observed y33 124, find the estimates 133, b33 and sn33. (iii) Use the estimates from (ii) to obtain the point forecasts for the time periods 34, 35, and 36.

Answer 1

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