Use EVIEWS to make the below Paper Products Series stationary and then identify plausible ARIMA models for the series. Use the minimum AIC criterion to choose the best model.
Akaike Information criterion (AIC)
|
Year |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|
1977 |
3017 |
3043 |
2094 |
2810 |
|
1978 |
3274 |
3163 |
2114 |
3024 |
|
1979 |
3327 |
3493 |
2439 |
3490 |
|
1980 |
3685 |
3661 |
2378 |
3459 |
|
1981 |
3850 |
3701 |
2642 |
3585 |
|
1982 |
4078 |
3907 |
2828 |
4089 |
|
1983 |
4340 |
4148 |
2916 |
4048 |
|
1984 |
4242 |
3997 |
2881 |
4036 |
|
1985 |
4360 |
4361 |
3172 |
4223 |
|
1986 |
4690 |
4695 |
3342 |
4577 |
|
1987 |
4965 |
5026 |
3470 |
4525 |
|
1988 |
5258 |
5189 |
3596 |
3881 |
when we are considering a model lowest AIC is considerd as best one
formula for calculating AIC = -2(PROBABILITY OF GIVEN DATA)+2K
WHERE K is the parameter.
Q4 IS THE MINIMUM AIC AND IT IS THE BEST MODEL
Use EVIEWS to make the below Paper Products Series stationary and then identify plausible ARIMA models...