Two experienced managers at Wilson Boat Inc. are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing system, claiming that their judgmental forecasts are much better than any computer could do. Their past record of predictions is as follows:
|
a.
The MSE value based on the manger’s forecast is 524000
The MSE value based on the single exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.8 is 711626
The manager's forecast should be chosen based on MSE value
Formula
b)
Alpha | MSE |
0.1 | 618159.6 |
0.2 | 569411 |
0.3 | 560264.2 |
0.4 | 572977.8 |
0.5 | 598304.7 |
0.6 | 631293.2 |
0.7 | 669386.3 |
0.8 | 711625.6 |
0.9 | 758496.9 |
c. The model based on a smoothing constant of 0.3 is the
best.
d. the manger's forecast has the lowest MSE
Two experienced managers at Wilson Boat Inc. are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing...
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