Question

public opinion poll was administered to 50 people before the election of President Barack Obama. Polls taken before election night showed 50% of the people polled believed Barack Obama would be elected president. After the election results, the same people were asked if they believed Barack Obama would be elected president, and this time 75% of the people said yes. This may be an example of ________ bias.

Group of answer choices

transient

hindsight

egocentric

stereotypical

Answer 1

The correct answer option is “second” option. The hindsight bias refers to people's predisposition to assert outcomes and events as simply predictable once they have happened, such as sporting or political events as well as prophecies. In other words, it represents the overestimation of one’s capability to foresee outcomes. In the given case, after the outcome of the elections, more people agreed that they correctly predicted the results, illustrating the hindsight bias. Egocentric bias, in contrast, denotes the tendency of an individual to depend heavily on his/her own perspective and have a greater view of him/herself. Transient bias illustrates that people will have the same or unchangeable preferences over time and stereotypical bias is the rigid incorrect idea or belief that most people hold regarding a specific group.