Consider the following investment offers regarding a product you have recently developed. A 10% interest rate should be used throughout this analysis unless otherwise specified:
Offer (I) – Receive $0.55m now and $194k from year 6 through 15. Also, if your product achieved over $100 million in cumulative sales by the end of year 15, you would receive an additional $3m. Assume that there is a 70% probability this would happen.
Offer (II) – Receive 30% of the buyer’s gross profit on the product for the next 4 years. Assume that the buyer’s gross profit margin is 60%. Sales in year 1 are projected to be $2.1m and then expected to grow by 40% per year.
Offer (III) – A trust fund would be set up, calling for semiannual payments of $204k for 8 years. On the 17th period, you would receive the compounded proceeds, which would then be discounted over the 8-year period back to the present at the specified annual rate.
Note: The term “k” is used to represent thousands (× $1,000).
Required: Determine the percentage difference between your most and least profitable alternatives, with the least profitable option as the basis for your calculation.
Offer I:
Present value of $ 194000 receivable from year 6 to 15
Year | Amount | Disc @ 10% | Discounting factor | Discounted Cash flows |
6 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^6 | 0.5645 | $109,507.94 |
7 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^7 | 0.5132 | $99,552.67 |
8 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^8 | 0.4665 | $90,502.43 |
9 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^9 | 0.4241 | $82,274.94 |
10 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^10 | 0.3855 | $74,795.40 |
11 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^11 | 0.3505 | $67,995.82 |
12 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^12 | 0.3186 | $61,814.38 |
13 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^13 | 0.2897 | $56,194.89 |
14 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^14 | 0.2633 | $51,086.26 |
15 | $194,000 | ( 1/1.10)^15 | 0.2394 | $46,442.06 |
Total | $740,166.79 |
Present value of receiving Additional $ 30,00000 if we achieve the Targeted sales = ($ 3 M * 0.70 + $ 0*0.30)/( 1.10)^15
= $ 2100000/( 1.10)^15
= $ 2100000/4.177248
= $ 502723.32
Note: If we will not achieve the Targeted sales we get nothing..
Calculating the present value of amount to be received.
Particulars | Amount |
Receive $ 0.57 M now | $570,000 |
PV of $ 194000 from year 6 to 15 | $740,166.79 |
PV of $ 30,00000 | $502,723.32 |
Total amount | $1,812,890 |
Hence the Present value of the Future cash inflows is $ 18,12890 under optionI.
Option II:
Year | Sales | Gross profit ( sales * 60%) | Amount ( 30% GP) |
1 | $2,100,000 | $1,260,000.00 | $ 1260000*0.30= $ 378000 |
2 | $ 2100000*1.40= $ 2940000 | $1,764,000.00 | $ 1764000*0.30=$ 529200 |
3 | $ 2940000*1.40=$ 4116000 | $2,469,600.00 | $ 2469600*0.30=$ 740880 |
4 | $ 4116000*1.40=$ 57,62400 | $3,457,440.00 | $ 3457440*0.30=$ 10,37232 |
Total | $2,685,312 |
Computation of the Present value of the Future cash inflows
Year | Cash inflow | Disc @ 10% | Discounted Cash flows |
1 | $378,000.00 | 0.9091 | $343,636.36 |
2 | $529,200.00 | 0.8264 | $437,355.37 |
3 | $740,880.00 | 0.7513 | $556,634.11 |
4 | $1,037,232.00 | 0.6830 | $708,443.41 |
Total | $2,046,069.26 | ||
Hence the Present value of the Future amount is $ 20,46069.26 under option II.
Option III:
Annual Interest rate = 10%
Interest rate for 6 months = 10% /2 = 5%
S.No | Amount | Future value factor @ 5% | Future Value factor | Future Cash flows |
1 |
$204000 |
(1.05)^15 | 2.0789 | $424101.35 |
2 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^14 | 1.9799 | $403906.05 |
3 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^13 | 1.8856 | $384672.43 |
4 |
$204000 |
( 1.05)^12 | 1.7959 | $366354.69 |
5 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^11 | 1.7103 | $348909.23 |
6 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^10 | 1.6289 | $332294.5 |
7 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^9 | 1.5513 | $316470.96 |
8 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^8 | 1.4775 | $301400.91 |
9 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^7 | 1.4071 | $287048.49 |
10 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^6 | 1.3401 | $ 273379.51 |
11 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^5 | 1.2763 | $ 260361.44 |
12 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^4 | 1.2155 | $247963.28 |
13 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^3 | 1.1576 | $236155.50 |
14 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^2 | 1.1025 | $ 224910 |
15 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^1 | 1.0500 | $214200 |
16 | $204000 | ( 1.05)^0 | 1.0000 | $204000 |
Total | $4826128.32 |
It is assumed that funds are reinvested after every cash flow
It is assumed that semi Annual payments occur at the end of each year.
Present value of $ 4826128.32is $ 4826128.32/( 1.10)^8
=$ 4826128.32/( 1.10)^8
= $ 2251424.479
Present value under option III is $ 2251424.79
Particulars | Amount | Status |
Option 1 Present value | $1,812,890 | Least Profitable Alternative |
Option II Present value | $2,046,069.26 | |
Option III Present value | $2251424.79 | Most profitable Alternative |
% Difference between Most profitable Alternative and least profitable alternative is ( $ 2251424.79-$ 1812890)/$ 1812890
= $ 438534.79/$ 1812890*100
= 24.1898%
Hence there is 24.1898% diffeerence between most Profitable and least profitable alternative.
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