Question

A manufacture production for the year 2019 are given below sales for a Dubai-based firm over the last 9 weeks are shown in the following table.

Month Product

1             490

2             470

3             485

4             495

5             500

6             480

7             510

8             475

9             520

10           530

11           550

12           505

Use the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to obtain forecasts for the first quarter of 2020, given the following parameters α = .60, β = .40, F1 = 475, T1 = 0.9.

Answer 1

Given the following parameters α = .60, β = .40, F1 = 475, T1 = 0.9.

Year	Period	Data	ES(0.6) Forecasts	Trend(0.4) Forecasts	Forecast Including Trend (FIT)
2019	January	490	475	0.9	475.9
2019	February	470	483.64	483.64	967.28
2019	March	485	282	282	564
2019	April	495	291	291	582
2019	May	500	297	297	594
2019	June	480	300	300	600
2019	July	510	288	288	576
2019	August	475	306	306	612
2019	September	520	285	285	570
2019	October	530	312	312	624
2019	November	550	318	318	636
2019	December	505	330	330	660
2020	January	-	303	303	606