Suppose you are facing two lotteries p and q, where the lotteries are defined over the set of outcomes X = {$1, $10, $25, $100}. The lotteries are defined as follows: p = (0.1, 0.25, 0.6, 0.05) q = (0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2)
(a) Suppose your utility function over outcomes is u(x) = ln(x).
Calculate the expected utility of lottery p and of lottery q, then explain which lottery will be preferred. (3 points)
(b) Now suppose your utility function over outcomes is u(x) = x 0.25. Calculate the expected utility of each lottery. Would your preference between the two lotteries switch relative to your answer in part (a)? (3 points)
Suppose you are facing two lotteries p and q, where the lotteries are defined over the...
2. Consider two lotteries, A and B. With lottery A, there is a 0.90 chance that you receive a payoff of S0 and a 0.10 chance that you receive a payoff of $400. With lottery B, there is a 0.50 chance that you receive a payoff of S30 and a 0.50 chance that you receive a payoff of $50, a) Verify that these two lotteries have the same expected value but that lottery A has a bigger variance than lottery...
2. An individual has a vNM utility function over money of u(x) -Vx, where x is final wealth. Assume the individual currently has $16. He is offered a lottery with three possible outcomes; he could gain an extra S9, lose $7, or not lose or gain anything. There is a 15% probability that he will win the extra $9, what minimum probability, p, of losing S7 would ensure that the individual chooses to not play the lottery? (a) p >...
Suppose the utility function of a decision maker for the amount of money x is given by U(x) = x2. (a) This decision maker is considering the following two lotteries: A: With probability 1, he gains 3000. B: With probability 0.4, he gains TL 1000, and with probability 0.6, he gains TL 4000. Which of the two lotteries will the decision maker prefer? What is the certainty equivalent (CE) for lottery B? Based on the CE for B, is the...
6. A decision maker has a vNM utility function over money of u(x) = x2. This decision maker is (a) risk-averse. (b) risk-neutral. (c) risk-loving. (d) none of the above. 7. Consider two lotteries: • Lottery 1: The gamble (0.1, 0.6, 0.3) over the final wealth levels ($1, $2, $3). (The expected value of this lottery equals $2.2) • Lottery 2: Get $2.2 for sure. a) Any risk-averse individual will choose the first lottery. b) Any risk-averse individual will choose...
Suppose you are facing a lottery that has a payoff of 10b pounds with probability 0.01 and that of 0 with probability 0.99. You are an expected utility maximiser with a utility function,u(x) = −exp(−ax) where x is the payoff in money terms and a > 0 is a parameter. What is the risk premium for this lottery - describe the risk premium as a function of ‘a’ and ‘b’.
1. a. Two investors, A and B, are evaluating the same investment opportunity, which has an expected value of £100. The utility functions of A and B are ln(x) and x2, respectively. Which investor has a certainty equivalent higher than 100? Which investor requires the higher risk premium? b. (i) Describe suitable measures of risk for ‘loss-aversion’ and ‘risk aversion’. (ii) Concisely define the term ‘risk neutral’ with respect to a utility function u (w), where w is the realisation...
Problem 6-11 Consider historical data showing that the average annual rate of return on the S&P 500 portfolio over the past 85 years has averaged roughly 8% more than the Treasury bill return and that the S&P 500 standard deviation has been about 33% per year. Assume these values are representative of investors' expectations for future performance and that the current T-bill rate is 3%. Calculate the utility levels of each portfolo for an investor with A2. Assume the utility...
Suppose the function u(x) = x0.5 , where x is consumption, represents your preference over gambles using an expected utility function. You have a probability 0.1 of getting consumption xB (bad state) and a probability 0.9 of getting xG (good state). An insurance company allows you to choose an insurance contract (b, p), where b is the insurance benefit the company pays you if the bad state occurs and p is the insurance premium you pay the company regardless of...
Consider historical data showing that the average annual rate of return on the S&P 500 portfolio over the past 85 years has averaged roughly 8% more than the Treasury bill return and that the S&P 500 standard deviation has been about 33% per year. Assume these values are representative of investors' expectations for future performance and that the current T-bill rate is 3%. Calculate the utility levels of each portfolio for an investor with A-3. Assume the utility function is...
Anne has been given a choice between two lotteries. In lottery A a fair coin is flipped. If it comes up heads, Anne wins $50, if it comes up tails, she wins $150. In lottery B a fair coin is also flipped. If it comes up heads, Anne wins nothing, if it comes up tails, she wins $200. Problem 4 - Choice under uncertainty (20 points) Anne faces an uncertain World with two possible states, good and bad. In the...