A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the...
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were Day: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Number sold: 33 35 40 42 42 42 43 48 49 Day: 10 11 12 13 14 15 Number sold: 46 52 46 48 57 50 a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of 48 for Day 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and α = β = .2, develop demand forecasts for Days 9 through 16. Then compute the resultant MSE using the error values from Days 8 through 15. (Round your intermediate period-by-period forecast and error values to 3 decimal places. Round your final MSE answer to 3 decimal places.)
Homework Answers
Formulae to be used for trend-adjusted exponential smoothing:
TAFt+1 = St + Tt
St = TAFt + α (At -
TAFt)
Tt = Tt-1 + β (TAFt -
TAFt-1 - Tt-1)
Calculations
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A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain
over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the...
Chapter 3 Problems Help Save & Exit Submit Check my work Problem 3-17 A pharmacist has...
Chapter 3 Problems Help Save & Exit Submit Check my work Problem 3-17 A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were Sped 40 45 50 Number sold: Day: Number soldi 32 10 48 35 11 50 36 12 49 39 13 49 41 14 49 42 15 55 -Book a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of...
The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 36...
The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 36 2 38 3 40 4 41 5 43 6 42 7 43 8 45 9 46 10 48 a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.30 and an initial forecast (F1) of 36. (Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.) b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α...
A large Portland manufacturer wants to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. A review...
A large Portland manufacturer wants to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. A review of past sales (At), as shown below, indicates that an increasing trend is present. Smoothing constants are assigned the values of a = 0.20 and ß = 0.4. The firm assumes the initial forecast for month 1 (F1) was 9.00 units and the trend over that period T1 was 2.00 units. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, Forecasts (Ft), Trend (Tt), and Forecasts Including Trend (FIT+)...
Examples 1,2,3 1. Beyond Tea Inc. wants to forecast sales of its menthol green tea. The...
Examples 1,2,3
1. Beyond Tea Inc. wants to forecast sales of its menthol green
tea. The company is considering either using a simple mean or a
three-period moving average to forecast monthly sales. Given sales
data for the past 10 months use both forecasting methods to
forecast periods 7 to 10 and then evaluate each. Which method
should they use? Use the selected method to make a forecast for
month 11. (Show all calculations .... Please read Examples1, 2, 3...
a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair...
a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair Savings Bank and use it to predict expected new checking accounts for periods 16 through 19. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Period New Accounts Period New Accounts Period New Accounts 1 200 6 239 11 281 2 212 7 243 12 275 3 211 8 250 13 287 4 222 9 251 14 288 5 235 10 267...
a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair...
a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair Savings Bank and use it to predict expected new checking accounts for periods 16 through 19. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Period New Accounts Period New Accounts Period New Accounts 1 200 6 237 11 281 2 212 7 249 12 275 3 211 8 250 13 287 4 222 9 255 14 288 5 235 10 267...
After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential...
After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 27 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +9.00 units. Period Actual Period Actual 1 206 6 263 2 233 7 278 3 228 8 288 4 233 9 293 5 253 10 Use α=.50 and β=.10, and TAF...
3-10 After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted...
3-10 After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units. Period Actual Period Actual 1 215 6 270 2 224 7 277 3 221 8 271 4 245 9 288 5 257 10 Use α=.5 and β=.1, and...
Need help on how to solve this, show all work and steps on how to get...
Need help on how to solve this, show all work and
steps on how to get the correct answer
Sav core: 0 of 15 pts roblem 4.21 A large Portiand manufa 3 of 7 (6 complete) HW Score: 41%, 41 of 100 i Question Help | acturer wants to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. A review of past sales (A,), as shown below, indicates that an increasing trend is present. Smoothing constants are assigned the values of...
Problem 3. After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a...
Problem 3. After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend- adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units. Use α-Sand β,4, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. Period Actual 210 224 229 240 255 Period Actual...
Chapter 3 Problems Help Save & Exit Submit Check my work Problem 3-17 A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were Sped 40 45 50 Number sold: Day: Number soldi 32 10 48 35 11 50 36 12 49 39 13 49 41 14 49 42 15 55 -Book a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of...
A large Portland manufacturer wants to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. A review of past sales (At), as shown below, indicates that an increasing trend is present. Smoothing constants are assigned the values of a = 0.20 and ß = 0.4. The firm assumes the initial forecast for month 1 (F1) was 9.00 units and the trend over that period T1 was 2.00 units. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, Forecasts (Ft), Trend (Tt), and Forecasts Including Trend (FIT+)...
Examples 1,2,3
1. Beyond Tea Inc. wants to forecast sales of its menthol green
tea. The company is considering either using a simple mean or a
three-period moving average to forecast monthly sales. Given sales
data for the past 10 months use both forecasting methods to
forecast periods 7 to 10 and then evaluate each. Which method
should they use? Use the selected method to make a forecast for
month 11. (Show all calculations .... Please read Examples1, 2, 3...
Need help on how to solve this, show all work and
steps on how to get the correct answer
Sav core: 0 of 15 pts roblem 4.21 A large Portiand manufa 3 of 7 (6 complete) HW Score: 41%, 41 of 100 i Question Help | acturer wants to forecast demand for a piece of pollution-control equipment. A review of past sales (A,), as shown below, indicates that an increasing trend is present. Smoothing constants are assigned the values of...
Problem 3. After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend- adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units. Use α-Sand β,4, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. Period Actual 210 224 229 240 255 Period Actual...
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