Question

A policyholder has a two-year auto insurance for his new car. Let X be the number of accidents th...

A policyholder has a two-year auto insurance for his new car.

Let X be the number of accidents that the policyholder experiences in one year.

You are given:

  • Pr[X = 0] = 0.9
  • Pr[X = 1] = 0.08
  • Pr[X = 2] = 0.02

The number of accidents that the policyholder experiences in each year is independent.

Given that the policyholder experiences exactly 2 accidents in two years, find the probability that the policyholder experiences at least one accident in each of the two years.

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Answer #1

Given that the total number of accidents in 2 years is 2. This can happen in three ways: 0 accident in 1st year and 2 accidents in 2nd year, 2 accidents in 1st year and 0 accidents in second year, 1 accident in each year.

Hence,

P(Atleast one accident in each year | Total 2 accidents)

= P(1 Accident in each year | Total 2 accidents)

0.08 0.08 0.02 * 0.9 + 0.9 0.020.08 0.08

= 8/53

= 0.1509

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