Question

1. How has China's position in the global political economy changed over the past thirty years? Does Chinese economic development present a threat to U.S national security? Why or why not?

Answer 1

Until economic reforms and trade liberalization were introduced almost 40 years ago, China retained policies that kept the economy very weak, sluggish, centrally controlled, highly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and introducing free-market reforms in 1979, China has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 9.5 percent through 2018, a rate that the World Bank described as "the fastest sustained expansion of a major economy in history." Such growth has allowed China to double its GDP on average every eight years, helping to lift an estimated 800 million people out of poverty. China has become the largest economy in the world (on a parity basis for purchasing power), producer, product broker, and owner of foreign reserves. This has turned China into a big U.S. trading partner. China is the largest trading partner of U.S. goods, the largest source of imports, and the third largest export market in the United States.

Since China's economy has evolved, its real GDP growth has slowed dramatically, from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.6% in 2018, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that it will drop to 5.5% by 2024. The Chinese government has welcomed slower economic growth, referring to it as the "new normal" and understanding China's need to embrace a new growth model that relies less on it.In its economic planning, the Chinese government has made innovation a top priority through a number of high-profile initiatives, such as "Made in China 2025," a project launched in 2015 to update and modernize Chinese manufacturing in 10 key sectors through extensive government assistance to make China a major global player in these sectors. These initiatives, however, have raised growing fears that China intends to use industrial policies to reduce the country's dependence on foreign technology (including by locking out foreign firms in China) and ultimately dominate global markets.

China is a one-party authoritarian state that refuses its own people the kinds of fundamental freedoms that Americans and other Westerners take for granted. It is often regarded as a local bully bullying its neighbors and disregarding international tribunals ' rulings. The laws of international diplomatic courtesy and military good sense are repeatedly violated by China. It even stole a U.S. drone submarine this time last year. It might be because China recognizes that the U.S. can not be intimidated, unlike smaller countries. This, however, did not stop China from bullying the Obama administration. Most probably, it's because China doesn't see itself as a U.S. competitor. Most of China's leadership of foreign policy has been educated in the United States and many have internalized American views as their own. We are eager to increase the power and influence of China in the world, of course, but the whole notion that China might take on the United States is absurd for many of them.