Question

Let Y and X be weekly excess returns of a US firm and S&P 500 index for the past two years, respectively. (You can actually download similar data from http://finance.yahoo.com/) The regression output for this data set in shown in the table below: Variable Coefficient t-value s.е. Intercept -0.008194 0.003680 1.690067 0.136379 p-value 0.0282 2 x 10-16 12.392 Sq-0.03734 n= 103 17=0.6033 Suppose that the model satisfies the usual SLR model assumptions, and that the SST for Y is 0.355

(iv) Suppose further that X hats 0.0001 and Sx= 0.02711201. Construct the 90% forecast interval for the estimate in (iii

Answer to question 3

(iii) Suppose that the expected market excess return for the next week is 2.7%. What is the expected return for the firm next week, given that the risk-free rate is 0.03%/52? The beta of the stock will be the X coefficient 1.690067 To calculate the expected return, we use the CAPM equation r(E)-rf + β * (rm-rf) d-0352-0.001%, Market risk premium (rm-r)-2.70% r(E) = .00196 + 1.690067 * (2.796) = 4.56%

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fven dhat, Conffdence Interval 90%

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