Question

(b) Do you think cognitive bias had the potential to influence the U.S. military's decision-making process with respect to reinforcing its fighter planes?

Answer 1

Thinking More Rationally: cognitive biases and the Joint Military Appreciation Process Nigel Dobson-Keeffe, Defence Science and Technology Organisation Major Warren Coaker, Australian Army Their judgment was based more on wishful thinking than on sound calculation of probabilities; for the usual thing among men is that when they want something they will, without any reflection, leave that to hope, while they will employ the full force of reason in rejecting what they find unpalatable. Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War 1 Introduction A cornerstone of strategic and tactical success is good decision-making. All militaries strive to make effective decisions based on a rational analysis of the situation. And yet things go wrong. Hindsight reveals that many military operations throughout history have failed due to poor decisions. Although such mistakes have been attributed to a variety of explanations, the underlying cause of many of these situations is frequently a failure in human cognitive processes; or, more simply, poor thinking. Despite the military’s care in developing robust planning and decisions processes, humans are not good at clear thinking. Our minds are misled into believing they have reached rational, balanced conclusions but, in reality, cognitive bias distorts our conscious thinking processes, making us susceptible to mistakes and hence poor decisions. Many of these are systemic errors. They are inherent in our everyday actions and repeated more often than we realise. However, repeatable errors imply that they are predictable—and being predictable, they are also avoidable, at least to some extent. There is little evidence that the Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP), as used by the ADF, considers the effects of these cognitive biases, despite their potential to affect operational decisions.2 With this in mind, the JMAP needs to be examined to determine its vulnerability to bias. This article examines a selection of cognitive biases with reference to their effect on the JMAP and suggests some ‘de-biasing’ techniques to help improve decision-making. JMAP: an inherent weakness In the Australian military, the JMAP codifies decision-making processes in a way designed to complement the needs of the military operational environment. It is used to apply operational art and design techniques in support of the planning of campaigns and operations, and some other operational activities. It facilitates the rapid planning and complex decision-making processes required primarily at the operational level. The JMAP has been developed over time based on solid decision-making theory and its practical application in the military environment. It has proven to be an effective tool for operational planning and is often used to assist non-operational staff work as well, although it is not formalised for that context.