(a) Plot the data on M1 money stock. (b) Use MegaStat or MINITAB to calculate estimated seasonal indexes and trend. Is there a trend in the deseasonalized data? (c) Make monthly forecasts for 2007. Note: M1 includes currency, travelers checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. MoneyStock
U.S. Money Stock M1 Component, 2000-2006 ($ billions) | |||||||
Month | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
Jan | 1,127 | 1,100 | 1,191 | 1,225 | 1,302 | 1,361 | 1,375 |
Feb | 1,097 | 1,090 | 1,178 | 1,225 | 1,306 | 1,355 | 1,362 |
Mar | 1,109 | 1,111 | 1,196 | 1,245 | 1,338 | 1,382 | 1,394 |
Apr | 1,126 | 1,127 | 1,197 | 1,259 | 1,343 | 1,369 | 1,393 |
May | 1,100 | 1,115 | 1,186 | 1,266 | 1,333 | 1,369 | 1,391 |
Jun | 1,102 | 1,126 | 1,194 | 1,284 | 1,348 | 1,384 | 1,378 |
Jul | 1,103 | 1,140 | 1,200 | 1,287 | 1,339 | 1,365 | 1,367 |
Aug | 1,094 | 1,145 | 1,182 | 1,292 | 1,352 | 1,377 | 1,370 |
Sep | 1,089 | 1,194 | 1,185 | 1,286 | 1,349 | 1,363 | 1,347 |
Oct | 1,092 | 1,159 | 1,196 | 1,288 | 1,351 | 1,365 | 1,360 |
Nov | 1,092 | 1,169 | 1,205 | 1,293 | 1,371 | 1,373 | 1,368 |
Dec | 1,112 | 1,208 | 1,245 | 1,332 | 1,401 | 1,396 | 1,388 |
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, www.federalreserve.gov. Data not seasonally adjusted.
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