Problem

(a) Choose one beverage category and plot the data. (b) Describe the trend (if any) and di...

(a) Choose one beverage category and plot the data. (b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Fit several trend models. Which is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain. (e) Make a forecast for 2005, using a trend model of your choice or a judgment forecast. Discuss. Note: Time increments are 5 years, so use t = 6 for your 2005 forecast. Beverages

U.S. Per Capita Annual Consumption of Selected Beverages (gallons)
Beverage	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000
Milk	27.6	26.7	25.7	23.9	22.5
Whole	17.0	14.3	10.5	8.6	8.1
Reduced-fat	10.5	12.3	15.2	15.3	14.4
Carbonated soft drinks	35.1	35.7	46.2	47.4	49.3
Diet	5.1	7.1	10.7	10.9	11.6
Regular	29.9	28.7	35.6	36.5	37.7
Fruit juices	7.4	7.8	7.8	8.3	8.7
Alcoholic	28.3	28.0	27.5	24.7	24.9
Beer	24.3	23.8	23.9	21.8	21.7
Wine	2.1	2.4	2.0	1.7	2.0
Distilled spirits	2.0	1.8	1.5	1.2	1.3

Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States. 2003.

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