Question

You come across a scientific study reported in the New York Times. The study says that adults who played varsity sports in high school are 20 percentage points more likely to have graduated college with a bachelor’s degree than adults who did not. a. Identify the outcome variable in this study b. Identify the treatment variable (or policy variable) in this study c. What is the counterfactual scenario for high school varsity athletes? d. Why is it important to think about the counterfactual scenario? e. Do you think that the correlation reported in this study is a causal effect? Why or why not? f. What is the value of the naive average treatment effect (ATE) of this study, assuming that the correlation is causal? What is its interpretation? g. If someone constructed an experiment to answer this question, what would it look like? Is such an experiment possible? Explain.

Answer 1

Answer (a) : The study which states that the adults who had played varsity sports in the high school are 20% points more likely to have graduated with a Bachelors degree , and the other are less likely to get the same. Here the outcome variable is how is the trend of pass outs from the college or school and are the students able to complete their graduation.

Answer (b) : In this study , the treatment variable is the playing of varsity sports in the high school. This is the variable on which the outcome variable depends.

Answer ( c) : In this study the counterfactual scenario is the outcome after the treatment variable is applied or worked upon. Here the counterfactual outcome is , that students pass put as graduates ( if they play varsity sports) , or they do not graduate ( if they do not play varsity sports ).

Answer (d) : It is important to think about the counterfactual scenario because in a study, the counterfactual scenario is the variable for which the complete study is being done. The success rate of the counterfactual scenario determines the affect of the study done on the people who analyses the study report.

Answer (e) : The correlation reported in this study is not a causal effect because, the correlation is not 100% verified. Th study only predicts 20% chance for the students who have played varsity sports to have graduated. Therefore, it does not satisfy the complete causal effects. It cannot be treated as a cause of the effect here.

Answer ( f) : If the correlation in this study is assumed to be causal affect, then the average treatment affect of this study will be a value which cannot be verified or totally implied upon, Since the Average treatment effect determines the randomized values, the result from this data will be more than flawed since the data only predicts a 20% chance of the variable success.

Answer (g) : An experiment to answer this is possible, however, the factors of the experiment will play a vital role in determining whether the experiment can be accepted as a causal effect or not. The experiment , if done, would be more of a survey nature, where the students would be surveyed once they have graduated and the ones who have not graduated.