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We are in the 8th year of an economic expansion. Is an economic downturn (or a...

We are in the 8th year of an economic expansion. Is an economic downturn (or a recession) likely? Using an AD-AS model discuss fully

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Economic downturn can br possibly fkrecasted since recently the yiled curve has inverted ehich means bond prices have increased due to increased interest rates and hence bond yields have been all time low suggesting near recession.

However if we look at other macros, recession is definitely seen if interest rates keep booming where inflation reaches low point and so does unemployment. Such contractionary monetary policy coupled with high government debt is prerecipe for recession .

Graph for contractionary monetary policy which can lead to recession shown below.

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