Question

Liz Jenkins and David Lee are facing an important decision. After having discussed different financial scenarios into the wee hours of the morning, the two computer engineers felt it was time to finalize their cash flow projections and move to the next stage – decide which of two possible projects they should undertake.

Both had a bachelor degree in engineering and had put in several years as maintenance engineers in a large chip manufacturing company. About six months ago, they were able to exercise their first stock options. That was when they decided to quit their safe, steady job and pursue their dreams of starting a venture of their own. In their spare time, almost as a hobby, they had been collaborating on some research into a new chip that could speed up certain specialized tasks by as much as 25%. At this point, the design of the chip was complete. While further experimentation might improve the performance of their design, any delay in entering the market now may prove to be costly, as one of the established players might introduce a similar product of their own. The duo knew that now was the time to act if at all.

They estimated that they would need to spend about $5,600,000 on plant, equipment and supplies. As for future cash flows, they felt that the right strategy at least for the first year would be to sell their product at dirt-cheap prices in order to induce customer acceptance. Then, once the product had established a name for itself, the price could be raised. By the end of the fifth year, their product in its current form was likely to be obsolete. However, the innovative approach that they had devised and patented could be sold to a larger chip manufacturer for a decent sum. Accordingly, the two budding entrepreneurs estimated the cash flows for this project (call it Project A) as follows:

Year	Project A Expected Cash flows ($)
0	($5,600,000)
1	$622,500
2	$885,000
3	$1,920,000
4	$3,187,500
5	$4,450,000

An alternative to pursuing this project would be to immediately sell the patent for their innovative chip design to one of the established chip makers. They estimated that they would receive around $400,000 for this. It would probably not be reasonable to expect much more as neither their product nor their innovative approach had a track record.

They could then invest in some plant and equipment that would test silicon wafers for zircon content before the wafers were used to make chips. Too much zircon would affect the long-term performance of the chips. The task of checking the level of zircon was currently being performed by chip makers themselves. However, many of them, especially the smaller ones, did not have the capacity to permit 100% checking. Most tested only a sample of the wafers they received.

Liz and David were confident that they could persuade at least some of the chip makers to outsource this function to them. By exclusively specializing in this task, their little company would be able to slash costs by more than half, and thus allow the chip manufacturers to go in for 100% quality check for roughly the same cost as what they were incurring for a partial quality check today. The life of this project too (call it project B) is expected to be only about five years.

The initial investment for this project is estimated at $5,800,000. After taking into account the sale of their patent, the net investment would be $5,400,000. As for the future, Liz and David were reasonably sure that there would be sizable profits in the first couple of years. But thereafter, the zircon content problem would slowly start to disappear with advancing technology in the wafer industry. Keeping all this in mind, they estimate the cash flows for this project as follows:

Year	Project B Expected Cash flows ($)
0	($5,400,000)
1	$3,292,500
2	$2,737,500
3	$1,057,500
4	$641,250
5	$371,250

Liz and David now need to make their decision. For purposes of analysis, they plan to use a required rate of return of 16% for both projects. Ideally, they would prefer that the project they choose have a payback period of less than 4 years and a discounted payback period of less than 5 years.

Below are the results of the analysis they have carried out so far:

Metrics	Project A	Project B
Payback period (in years)	3.68	1.77
Discounted payback period (in years)	4.67	2.78
Net Present Value (NPV)	$703,531	$681,180
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)	19.82%	23.85%
Profitability Index	1.1256	1.1261
Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)	18.78%	18.79%

One of the concerns that Liz and David have is regarding the reliability of their cash flow estimates. All the analysis in the table above is based on “expected” cash flows. However, they are both aware that actual future cash flows may be higher or lower.

Suppose that Liz and David have hired you as a consultant to help them make the decision.

Answer 1

Based on the results of the analysis, Liz and David should go further with Project B.

NPV of Project A is better than the Project B. But it is roughly higher than 3%

Also the IRR, payback period and discounted payback period of Project B is favorable. And Liz & David are unsure about the expected cash flows. In that case 3% NPV difference can be kept aside. As all the other factors are in support of the Project B.

While making a investment decision , NPV method is always given a preference above the other methods. But in this case NPV of Project A is only higher than the Project B by 3% which is a minimal difference.

According to me, Liz and David should proceed with Project B and should not sell the patent immediately as they will receive a very less amount.