Question

2. How do historical fertility trends match the fertility of your mother, grandmother, and great- grandmother (if known)? Is your family typical or atypical of historical fertility trends in the U.S. (or your home country)? (If your family circumstances make it difficult to answer this question, use the family background of a friend or relative.) 3. Consider 2 countries, A and B. In each country there are only two occupations: white-collar and blue-collar. White-collar jobs pay twice as much as blue-collar jobs. In Country A, 30 percent of the working women and 70 percent of the working men are in white-collar jobs. In country B, 35 percent of the working women and 90 percent of the working men are in white-collar jobs.

Please answer problem 2

Answer 1

Certain indicators of Fertillity like Child Woman Ratio and Total Fertility rate are to be understood before moving on to furthur discussion.

Child-Woman Ratio Number of children under age 5 per 1000 women of childbearing age in a given year.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children per woman.

The historical fertility trends of mother ,grand mother and great grand mother could be identified if the fertility trends in different generations over different countries are analysed. The following discussion, put a glimpse on to the said matter.

The global average fertility rate is just below 2.5 children per woman today. Over the last 50 years the global fertility rate has halved.

In the pre-modern era fertility rates of 4.5 to 7 children per woman were common. At that time the very high mortality at a young age kept population growth low.

As health improves and the mortality in the population decreases typically accelerated population growth is evident. This rapid population growth then comes to an end as the fertility rate declines and approaches 2 children per woman.

Academic research that answers the reason why number of children per woman declined. Particularly important are 1) the empowerment of women in society and in relationships – through education, labor force participation, and strengthened women’s rights – and 2) the increased well-being and status of children.

The global decline of the fertility rate since 1950

In the past people had many more children than today. The number fluctuated over time and there were some differences between countries.

From 1950 onwards we have very good data from the UN Population Division.

The chart below shows the average global Total Fertility Rate over time. Up to 1965 the average woman in the world had more than 5 children. Since then we have seen an unprecedented change. The number has halved. Globally, the average per woman is now below 2.5 children.

Our World World population by level of fertility over time (1950-2010) in Data On the x-axis you find the cumulative share of the world population. The countries are ordered along the x-axis descending by the total fertility rate of the country. 1950-55 Rwanda Global Average Fertility: 4.97 No Kenya Yohanistan 1975-80 Global Average Fertility: 3.86 Egypt Bangladesh Brazilmaland 2005-10 Global Average Fertility: 2.5 Number of children per woman (Total Fertility Rate) USA anera am Candelaardi tayo 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Cumulative share of the world population Data source: United Nations Population Division (2012 revision). The interactive data visualization is available at Our WorldinData.org. There you find the raw data and more visualizations on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.

As a consequence of the declining global fertility rate the global population growth rate has declined, from a peak of 2.1% per year in 1968 to less than 1.1% today.

The decline of the number of children per woman since 1950

If you look at the red line you see the countries of the world ordered descending by the fertility rate in the period between 1950 to 1955. Rwanda, Kenya, the Philippines and also other countries that are not labelled in this chart had a fertility rate higher than 7 children per woman.

China had a fertility rate of just over 6 and India a fertility rate of just under 6. On the very right of the red line you see that in 1950-55 there was only one country in the world with a fertility rate below 2. The width given to each country in this chart corresponds to the share of that country’s population in the total global population at that point in time – this is why China and India are so very wide

What we can see then is that in the 1950s, the world is clearly divided between countries with high and countries with low fertility rates.

On the right-hand side of the chart we see countries where women have fewer than 3 children – in these countries the fertility rate had declined already in the decades before. As we will see below fertility rates were high in all countries in the distant past.

Looking at the orange line, you see that until 1975-80 some countries substantially reduced their fertility: China’s fertility rate fell to 3 (this was largely before the introduction of the ‘one child policy’). And other countries maintained very high fertility levels.

In Yemen, the fertility rate was 8.9 children per woman in 1985. The global average was still close to 4 children per woman.

Since then the world has changed substantially. The blue line shows how globally, the fertility rate has fallen to 2.5 children per woman and low fertility rates are the norm in most parts of the world: The huge majority of the world population – 80% – now live in countries with a fertility rate below 3 children per woman. On the other end of the spectrum there are a few countries – home to around 10% of the world population – where women on average have still more than 5 children.

Comparing the red, orange and blue lines also makes it possible to see the change in single countries: In Iran for example, the fertility rate in 1985 was 6.2 children per woman; today women in Iran have fewer children than in the US, the UK, or Sweden: 1.7 children per woman. In Thailand (chart here), the fertility rate in 1950 was 6.1, in 1985 it was 2.6, and today it is 1.5 children per woman.

World population by level of fertility over time, 1950-2010

Fertility rates can decline extremely fast. The decline of the fertility rate is one of the most fundamental social changes that happened in human history. It is therefore especially surprising how very rapidly this transition can indeed happen.

It took Iran only 10 years for fertility to fall from more than 6 children per woman to fewer than 3 children per woman. China made this transition in 11 years – before the introduction of the one-child policy.

The speed with which countries can make the transition to low fertility rates has increased over time.

In the 19th century it took the United Kingdom 95 years and the US 82 years to reduce fertility from more than 6 to less than 3.
This is a pattern that we see often in development: those countries that first experience social change take much longer for transitions than those who catch up later. Countries that were catching up increased life expectancy much faster, they reduced child mortality more quickly and were able to grow their incomes much more rapidly

Women’s empowerment, the increasing well-being and status of children, technological and economic changes, changing norms, and opportunities for family planning matter for the reduction of the total fertility rate have contributed significantly for the fertility rate changes.

In the same context our own family tree can be considered for variation in the fertility rate . For instance , one of my friend X`s great grand mother had 12 children , grand mother had 10 children and when it reached to her mother it was only 3. The reason for this dramatic decline is nothing but the above mentioned reasons.

Thus the general trend in fertility rate is demonstrating a typically declining pattern over the centuries.