Based on the time series values from problem number 2, consider the following table of exponential...
Based on the time series values from problem number 2, consider the following table of exponential smoothing values using ? = ?. ? for the time series.
|
Month |
Units Sold (Thousands) |
Forecast (F) |
error |
Squared error |
|
1 |
9 |
* |
* | * |
|
2 |
3 |
(i)? |
(ii)? |
36 |
|
3 |
6 |
7.2000 |
-1.2000 |
1.44 |
|
4 |
6 |
6.8400 |
-0.8400 |
0.7056 |
|
5 |
12 |
6.5880 |
5.4120 |
29.2897 |
|
6 |
9 |
8.2116 |
0.7884 | 0.6216 |
|
7 |
(iii)? |
a) b) c) d) e)
a. Compute the number (i): Show your work for full credit
b. Compute the number (ii): Show your work for full credit
c. Compute the number (iii): Show your work for full credit
d. What is the mean square error (MSE)? Show your work for full
credit
Homework Answers
a) Assuming Forecast for first month = Units sold = 9
Forecast for Month 2: F2 = F1 + ?*(A1-F1) = 9+0.3*(9-9) = 9
b) Error for month 2 = Actual-Forecast = 3-9 = -6
c) Forecast for Month 7: F7 = F6 + ?*(A6-F6) = 8.2116+0.3*(9-8.2116) = 8.2116+0.3*0.7884 = 8.2116+0.2365 = 8.4481
d) MSE = Sum of squared errors/n = (36+1.44+0.7056+29.2897+0.6216)/5 = 68.0569/5 = 13.6114
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