Question

Compare the current pandemic to the Plague of the 20th century.

Answer 1

Case fatality rates: COVID-19 vs. US Seasonal Flu Our World in Data Case fatality rate (CFR) is specific to a location and time. It is calculated by dividing the total number of deaths from a disease by the number of confirmed cases. 6% 4 to 7-times higher than the flu Seasonal Flu Case fatality rates for the influenza season 2018-19 in the USA. COVID-19 Case fatality rates for the COVID-19 outbreak in China, for the period up to February 11, 2020. Symptomatic cases are calculated based on models which aim to account for underreporting - figures based on medical visits are therefore also shown in square brackets, which may be a closer comparison to COVID-19 case fatality rates. 2.3% 12 to 24-times higher than the flu 0.8% [illnesses] 1.4% [medical visits] 1.3% 9 to 21-times higher than the flu 0.1% 0.3% 6 to 16-times higher than the flu 0.1% [0.2%] 0.06% 0.004% 0.02% [0.14%] (0.007%] [0.06%) 0-17 years 18-49 years 50-64 years 14 to 25-times higher than the flu All ages 65+ years All ages 0-19 years 20-49 years 50-59 years 60+ years Data: Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. Vital surveillances: the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)-China, 2020. China CDC Weekly. US Influenza data is sourced from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). OurWorldinData.org - Research and data to make progress against the world's largest problems. Licensed under CC-BY by the authors Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser.

SARS-CoV-2 and flu are biologically different

Both the new coronavirus and influenza have genetic material in the form of RNA. RNA viruses tend to accumulate a lot of mutations as they multiply – they typically don’t double-check copied genes to correct errors during replication. These mutations can occasionally lead to significant changes: The virus might change the species it infects or cell receptor it uses, or it could become more or less deadly, or spread more or less easily.

Influenza’s genetic material is organized in segmented chunks. Influenza also has a distinct seasonality, circulating much more during the winter months.

Coronaviruses actually do proofread their copied RNA to fix inadvertent errors during replication, which decreases their relative mutation rate. It’s also currently unknown if SARS-CoV-2 will be influenced by the seasons, like influenza. It has already successfully spread in many climates