When we set alpha=0 in the exponential smoothing forecasting model what are we essentially assuming
When we set alpha=0 in the exponential smoothing forecasting model what are we essentially assuming
QUESTION 16 All of the Forecasting Models are based on past data EXCEPT: Exponential Smoothing Model Moving Average Model Weighted Moving Average Model Bi-Variate Causal Model
1: Please select the right statement(s) that apply to the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment forecasting method Select one or more: a. The exponential smoothing with trend adjustment requires the initial forecast b. The use of exponential smoothing with trend adjustment is appropriate when the underlying average of the time series is either increasing or decreasing c. α and β should be carefully selected between 0 and 1 in a way to minimize the forecasting errors d. Setting α close...
Question 9 (8 points) Use a simple exponential smoothing model with alpha = .3. The forecast for period 8 is? Use 2 decimal places Per Y
We use data from the past to determine the best forecasting method for the future. What is one of the uses of this data from the past when dealing with selecting the best forecasting method? To determine the best value for c, the capacity of a water slide All the other answers are correct To determine the best weights for olympic lifting To determine the best value for alpha used in the forecasting method Exponential Smoothing
In a simple exponential smoothing model the manager would prefer a large value of ɑ if he/she wants to respond well to a system characterized by a low level of random behavior but often subjected to a real change in the demand? T or F ...Exponential smoothing assumes that past data is more indicative of the future than the most recent occurrence? ...T or F Subjective forecasting methods should mostly be used for long-term forecast horizons? T or F
Question 6 3 pts Consider the following simple exponential smoothing model. alpha 0.05 Exp Smooth Period Demand ForecastError ABS(Error) 19 21 28 25 30 1 20.00 20.40 20.63 21.10 8.00 4.60 9.37 11.90 8.00 4.60 9.37 11.90 4 What is the forecast for period 10?
Exercise # 1-0M6322-week 4-Forecasting using Exponential Smoothing The first five periods of demand data are shown in the following table Let the smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal 0.2.Compute the exponentially smoothed forecasts for periods one through four Initialize the procedure with a forecast value for period one of 37 Period Aggregate Demand Forecast demand 38 42 40 36 42 37 Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt Land the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of...
Predict Inc., is using a simple exponential smoothing model to forecast their monthly sales but they are not sure of the best alpha value to use. They ran some computerized forecasts with different alpha values and reported the following. What alpha value should they use? alpha 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 MAD 18.4 14.7 13.2 16.2 15.3 11.7 10.2 12.5 Group of answer choices 0.45 0.15 0.2 0.35 0.5
Under exponential smoothing, if we want forecasts to be very responsive to recent demand, the value of alpha should be: Small Very small Large Very large Zero
The exponential smoothing model from part b, with α=0.1, yields a mean squared error of 14.3 for this time series. If we set α equal to 0.05, the mean squared error is 15.9. If we set α equal to 0.3, the mean squared error is 10.5. Which of these three values of α (0.05, 0.1, 0.3) would be the most appropriate for predicting future weekly sales?