Calculate Forcasting
The following are historical demand data:
| ACTUAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| YEAR | SEASON | DEMAND |
| 2011 | Spring | 208 |
| Summer | 138 | |
| Fall | 360 | |
| Winter | 568 | |
| 2012 | Spring | 466 |
| Summer | 265 | |
| Fall | 684 | |
| Winter | 970 | |
Use regression analysis on deseasonalized Demand to forecast demand in summer 2013. (Do not round intermediate calculations.
Round your answer to the nearest whole number)
Homework Answers
Quarterly average demand =(208+138+360+568+466+265+684+970)/8=457.38
| Season | Average demand | Average demand | Seasonal Index | Seasonal Index |
| Spring | (208+466)/2 | 337 | 337/457.38 | 0.74 |
| Summer | (138+265)/2 | 201.5 | 201.5/457.38 | 0.44 |
| Fall | (360+684)/2 | 522 | 522/457.38 | 1.14 |
| Winter | (568+970)/2 | 769 | 769/457.38 | 1.68 |
| Period X | Demand | Deseasonalized Demand Y | Deseasonalized Demand Y | X^2 | X^2 | X*Y | X*Y | |
| 1 | 208 | 208/0.74 | 281.08 | 1*1 | 1 | 1*281.08 | 281.08 | |
| 2 | 138 | 138/0.44 | 313.64 | 2*2 | 4 | 2*313.64 | 627.27 | |
| 3 | 360 | 360/1.14 | 315.79 | 3*3 | 9 | 3*315.79 | 947.37 | |
| 4 | 568 | 568/1.68 | 338.10 | 4*4 | 16 | 4*338.10 | 1352.38 | |
| 5 | 466 | 466/0.74 | 629.73 | 5*5 | 25 | 5*629.73 | 3148.65 | |
| 6 | 265 | 265/0.44 | 602.27 | 6*6 | 36 | 6*602.27 | 3613.64 | |
| 7 | 684 | 684/1.14 | 600.00 | 7*7 | 49 | 7*600.00 | 4200.00 | |
| 8 | 970 | 970/1.68 | 577.38 | 8*8 | 64 | 8*577.38 | 4619.05 | |
| SUM | 36 | 3659 | 3657.99 | 204 | 0 | 18789.44 |
b=(8*18789.44-36*3657.99)/(8*204-36*36) =55.44
a= Y bar-b*X bar
a=(3657.99/8)-55.44*(36/8)=207.77
Regression equation Y= a+bX
Y=207.77+55.44X
For summer 2013, X=10
Y=207.77+55.44*10
Y=762.17 or 762
so answer =762
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