Question

Assume that for this project to be completed, five independent tasks must be completed. These tasks are proceeding in parallel by five different subcontractors. To keep it simple, let's assume that each task takes between 1 and 5 months to complete (uniformly distributed, i.e. equally likely to take any amount of time between 1 and 5 months). So, the mean time to complete each task is 3 months and the probability of any given task taking 3 months or longer is 0.5. However, the project is NOT considered complete until ALL five tasks are complete. Conduct a Monte-Carlo Simulation with 100 experiments to answer the following questions: Use only RAND function (do not use RANDBETWEEN).

Q1: What is the probability that the project finishes in 3 months or less?

Q2: What is the expected project completion time?

Q3: Develop a table (using Frequency function) and a graph (histogram) of distribution of project completion times.

Answer 1

Calculations:

Answers:

Q1: Prob (duration <= 3) = 0.02

Q2: Expected duration = 4.34

Q3.