Question

project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity Time (weeks) Activity Probability A 0.29 0.30 10 0.28 11 0.13 0.24 4 0.53 6 0.23 12 0.12 0.20 14 0.35 16 18 0.15 20 0.18 6 0.69 0.31 a. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project. Worst case Best case Activity Base case A weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks C weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks D weeks weeks Total weeks b. Use the random numbers 0.7378, 0.8896, 0.24 and 0.1125 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks. Activity Random Number Completion Time 0.7378 weeks A 0.8896 weeks C 0.24 weeks 0.1125 weeks D Total weeks 106.33 c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The mean of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

Answer 1

Best Cae Activity uorst Cax Bax Car Bweeks 11 weeks 9 wee ks 4weeks &weeks 12 wee Ks 20wee Ks 16 weeks Gwerks weeks S weeks Total 30 weels 3 weeks 47 weeks Gme trat have ghat qrobašlty Base Case is the walst Case s the highest Campletian time Completuon time ithe lowest Best Case A 0

Activity pro babi lily ttme Cammuth Dnterval 029 A O-29 o but n than o-dg is betwean O 30 O 59 O49 but< O59 0-3378 11 O13 39> ng ts a 4 0 24 O but lun theuno 24 0-77 0.24 beut o-7? o.23 0.but len thano1 O.12 12 O.12 0-32 O20 0-12 0-32 0-a4 o 12 To 01A 16 O.69 O-35 0-67 0-32 o-2 D63 O-82 20 O69 O-69 0-69 0-1125 o too169 D O69< O 31 Completion tine Random Numbn Activity 10 weeks O-7378 A &weeks 14 weeks O24 6 wels b.1125 38 welks Total