Question

Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic)

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Activity		Activity Time (weeks)		Probability
A		6		0.29
		7		0.38
		8		0.27
		9		0.06
B		3		0.21
		5		0.53
		7		0.26
C		6		0.06
		8		0.26
		10		0.37
		12		0.22
		14		0.09
D		11		0.63
		13		0.37

1. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
   

   Activity	Base case	Worst case	Best case
   A	weeks	weeks	weeks
   B	weeks	weeks	weeks
   C	weeks	weeks	weeks
   D	weeks	weeks	weeks
   Total	weeks	weeks	weeks

2. Use the random numbers 0.3805, 0.5621, 0.7067 and 0.1687 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
   

   Activity	Random Number	Completion Time
   A	0.3805	weeks
   B	0.5621	weeks
   C	0.7067	weeks
   D	0.1687	weeks
   Total		weeks

3. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.
   
   Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The   of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

Answer 1

c) Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The mean of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

19) Worst Case Base Case Activity Best case I wooks Gweets 9 wers 7 weeks sweaks 3 weeks 10 weeks 6 weoks 14 weeks 13 weeks 11 weeks 11 weeks Total 33 weeks 4 weeks 26 weeks Activity Activity time Probability | Cummulative Interval 0.38 0.27 0.06 0.29 0.67 0.94 1.00 0.21 053 0.26 To but less than 029 10 29 less than 06 10.67 <0.94 10.9451 10.000.21 0.21 <0.74 10.74 0 <0.06 006< 0:32 10.32< 0.69 0.69 <091 0.91< / 0.<0.63 0.63 < 1 0.21 0.74 1.00 0.06 0.32 0.69 0.91 0.06 0.26 0.37 0.22 0.09 0.63 0.63 100 13 Activity 0.37 Random number 0-3805 0.5621 0.7067 0.1687 Completion time Tweeks 5 weeks 12 weeks 11 weeks 35 weeks