Question

You conduct an experiment on whether a new treatment for chronic dry mouth is more effective than the traditional treatment at relieving chronic dry mouth. Analyzing your results, you calculate a Bayes factor of 0.5. What does this mean?

a. Evidence suggests that the new treatment is 5 times more likely than the traditional treatment at relieving chronic dry mouth.

b. Evidence suggests that the new treatment is 5 times less likely than the traditional treatment at relieving chronic dry mouth.

c. Evidence suggests that the new treatment has a 5% chance of relieving chronic dry mouth.

d. Evidence suggests that the new treatment has a 5% chance of not relieving chronic dry mouth.

My thought is C? What do you think?

Thank you!

Answer 1

As Bayes Factor is between 0.33-1 i.e. the evidence is anecdotal in the favour of alternative hypothesis and the thus correct answer is Option C as Option A is too strong.

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