Question

The following table illustrates the activities of a small project Duration Days) Activity Depends orn 7 7 9 2 419 A a. Calculate the mean Project duration; b. Write and Highlight the Critical Path; c. Find the probability to finish this project at 15 days; d. Find the probability to finish this project at 19 days; e. Find the project duration that satisfies probability equal to 8 %; f. Find the project duration that satisfies probability equal to 92 %.

Answer 1

1 - 2 - 5 - 6 = 15.16 1 - 2 - 3 - 6 = 8.32 1 - 2 - 3 - 6 = 9 1 - 4 - 6 = 15.33 rightarrow Critical path. 1 - 4 - 3 - 6 = 13.16 1 - 4 - 3 - 6 = 13.83 Expected Time} T_E = 15.83 days T_s = 15days: P(z) = ? z = T_s - T_E/sigma = 15 - 15.33/0.67 Total Standard Deciaton of critical Path sigma = 0.67 z = -0.5 From the Probability Distribution Table z = -0.5: P(z) = 0.3085 P(z) = 30.85% T_s = 19 days: P(z) = ? z = 19 - 15.33/0.67 z = 5.477 In z table P(z) TildeEqual 1 1.e. 100% probability that the project to be completed by given time. P(z) = 8% = 0.08: T_s = ? from P(z) value from z table. z = -1.4 -1.4 = T_s - 15.33/0.67 T_s = 14.39 days P(z) = 92% = 0.92, T_x = ? z = 1.41 1.41