An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks
indicate the number of job requests:
Week: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Requests: | 25 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these
methods:
a. Naive.
Number of requests
b. A four-period moving average. (Round
your answer to 2 decimal places.)
Number of requests
c. Exponential smoothing with α = .25. Use 25 for
week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values
and final answer to 2 decimal places.)
Number of Requests | |
F3 | |
F4 | |
F5 | |
F6 |
a)
Number of requests for week 6 = 27
Naive forecasting technique assumes that the forecast in the next period is equal to the forecast in the most recent period.
Recent period is 5, and number of requests for period 5 is 27. Hence forecast for period 6 is 27.
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b)
Using a four period moving average, forecast for period 6 is found as
Number of requests week 6 = 26.25
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c)
The exponential smoothing forecast is found using the following equation
Ft+1 = Yt + ( 1 - ) Ft
Forecast for week 3 = 0.25 27 + ( 1 - 0.25) 25
Forecast for week 3 = 25.5
Forecast for week 4 = 0.25 25 + (1 - 0.25) 25.5
Forecast for week 4 = 25.38
Forecast for week 5 = 0.25 26 + ( 1 - 0.25) 25.38
Forecast for week 5 = 25.54
Forecast for week 6 = 0.25 27 + ( 1 - 0.25) 25.54
Forecast for week 6 = 25.91
Number of requests | |
F3 | 25.50 |
F4 | 25.38 |
F5 | 25.54 |
F5 | 25.91 |
An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week:...
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