Question

Probability is used constantly in our lives. We rarely actually use numbers in our daily calculations but probability still controls much of our daily interactions. Some examples: 1. My wife is always late. I would estimate that she is late perhaps 95 % of the time. Based on this, I can plan events. One time I told her that the time we needed to arrive was one hour prior to the correct time. We arrived about 10 minutes early. This is a subjective probability where an estimate is based upon past experience. Although percents and probability are not exactly the same, we tend to use them in the same manner 2. When I last went to Vegas, I played the poker machine. I am not much into gambling so I play the 25 cent play. I would have to determine the higher probability of winning given certain circumstances. For example, I might go for all hearts or three of a kind based upon this mental calculation (assuming four hearts of which one is the jack of hearts and the non-heart is a jack of diamonds). Based upon probability: 9/47 (the dealt card needs to be a heart, 47 cards remaining of which 9 are P(flush or all hearts) hearts) 19.15% P(three jacks) =2/47 (the dealt card needs to be a jack, 47 cards remaining of which 2 are jacks) 4.26% This is assuming that you get a brand new deck each round of video poker. Most people choose to go for the three of a kind but the flush has a better chance. Come up with at least two examples of probability in your life.

Answer 1

Examples of probability in real life :-

1. Medication is the following example. For medication how do you know if the medication someone else is taking is going to work for you? how do you know if you'll get or won't get any of those side effects, if not something else? How do you know that it will actually cure whatever illness you may have? You never truly know what the outcome of something will be.

2. Another example is lottery. The chances of winning the lottery is so slim and unlikely, that because it is unlikely you don't see everybody going out and buying lottery tickets because "their life as well as their income depends on it" Everyone knows it's not reliable. 99.9% of the time people know that they aren't going to win anyways. But there's a .1% that they will, and they're taking that chance. If they do win it's a big shocker.