We will be using the following data:
Sales | Dealerships | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
85470 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
101384 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
121303 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
133601 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
194513 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
82157 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
150405 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
242762 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
260353 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
273488 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
65480 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
101458 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
150132 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
165487 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
200406 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
98535 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
200358 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
250155 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
306587 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
389564 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In our regression equation, there are three dummy variables (and not four because if all the first three dummy variables have a value of zero, it indicates Quarter 4, hence it is reduntant to include an extra dummy variable in our regression equation)
We can use the above data to make a regression model in Excel or SPSS or in any other statistical software.
In Excel Go to Data -> Data Analysis -> Regression -> Select the data -> OK
In SPSS Go to analyze -> Regression -> Linear
The results are:
SUMMARY OUTPUT | ||||||||
Regression Statistics | ||||||||
Multiple R | 0.94504 | |||||||
R Square | 0.893101 | |||||||
Adjusted R Square | 0.864595 | |||||||
Standard Error | 31944.83 | |||||||
Observations | 20 | |||||||
ANOVA | ||||||||
df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | ||||
Regression | 4 | 1.28E+11 | 3.2E+10 | 31.32985 | 4.02E-07 | |||
Residual | 15 | 1.53E+10 | 1.02E+09 | |||||
Total | 19 | 1.43E+11 | ||||||
Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Lower 95.0% | Upper 95.0% | |
Intercept | 118650.7 | 20626.81 | 5.752257 | 3.82E-05 | 74685.71 | 162615.7 | 74685.71 | 162615.7 |
Dealerships | 10515.25 | 1199.882 | 8.763565 | 2.75E-07 | 7957.759 | 13072.74 | 7957.759 | 13072.74 |
Q1 | -121786 | 20203.68 | -6.02789 | 2.31E-05 | -164849 | -78722.5 | -164849 | -78722.5 |
Q2 | -47206.8 | 20203.68 | -2.33654 | 0.033749 | -90269.9 | -4143.67 | -90269.9 | -4143.67 |
Q3 | -112447 | 20203.68 | -5.56568 | 5.4E-05 | -155510 | -69384.1 | -155510 | -69384.1 |
We can see that the Q1 coefficient has a value of -121786 with a significant p-value. Hence, the variable Quarter 1 is significant. Hence, as the value is negative, it means that on average, car sales are higher in the 4th quarter than in the 1st quarter at the 0.05 level of significance.
Regression equation is:
Sales = 118650.7 + 10515.25*Dealerships -121786*Quarter 1 - 47206.8*Quarter 2 - 112447*Quarter 3
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