Question

A7-3 (Algo) The expected times and variances... The expected times and variances for the project activities are given below. Complete the table showing which activities are critical ID Description Predecessor te Variance Critical? 1 2 3 None Pilot production Select channels of distrib. Develop mag program Test market None 4 5 Patent 6 Full production Ad promotion Rese What is the probability of completing the project in 32 periods? Hint Use the ENORM S DISTI, TRUE) function in Excel to compute the probability (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round the final answer to 3 decimal places, Le.. 0.750.) The probability of completing the project in 32 periods

Answer 1

Answer:

Path	Duration	Variance
1-4-6-8	36.00	16.00
1-5-8	30.00
2-8	32.00
3-7-8	25.00

1-4-6-8 is a longest and hence critical path, its variance is 16

Activity	Expected time	Variance	Critical
1	15.00	3.00	Yes
2	30.00	4.00	No
3	13.00	2.00	No
4	4.00	2.00	Yes
5	13.00	5.00	No
6	15.00	10.00	Yes
7	10.00	2.00	No
8	2.00	1.00	Yes

The probability of completing in 32 periods

step 1	we will find the variance of the tasks which lie on critical path				16.00
step 2	mean project time (u) of critical path is=				36.00
step 3	Required completion time is				32
step 4	standard deviation= sqrt(variance)=				4.000
step 5	because Z= (given completion time- u)/standard deviation				-1.000
step 6	P(z)= using NORM.S.DIST(z,true)				0.159

Answer: The probability of completing in 32 periods is 0.159