Question

PERT Analysis: The following represents a project with four activities. All times are in weeks.

Activity	Immediate Predecessor	Optimistic Time	Most Likely Time	Pessimistic Time
A	-	3	8	14
B	-	8	8	8
C	A	6	9	18
D	B	6	11	17

According to the data in the above Table:

What is the critical path?

What is the minimum expected completion time for the project?

According to the above Table, there are four activities in the project. Assume the normal distribution is appropriate to use to determine the probability of finishing by a particular time. If you wished to find the probability of finishing the project in 20 weeks or fewer, it would be necessary to find the variance and then the standard deviation to be used with the normal distribution. What is the probability of completing this project in 20 weeks or fewer?

Answer 1

Activi Most likel Expected time Optimistic Pessimistic Variance ((D2-B2)/6)42 ((D3-B3)/6)42 (D4-B4)/6)A2 ((D5-B5)/6)42 B2+C2*4+D2)/6 B3+C3*4+D3)/6 (B4+C4*4+D4)/6 B5+C5*4+D5)/6 14 18 17 4

13 1 Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected time Variance 1A 8.17 8.00 10.00 3.361 U.KX) 생.(XX) 3.361 18 17

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