Question

Apply Dror's four variables for thinking about political feasibility as it relates to the pandemic of 2020

Answer 1

A discussion of methods for the systematic exploration of political feasibility concerning policy-oriented predictions. Political feasibility is defined in three interdependent ways: (1) an actor's ability to influence and implement policies, a probability distribution in respect to each policy-alternative, and a range of "time-sensitive" policy alternatives. Among the variables that shape political feasibility are the capacities and intentions of the main actors; public opinion and other related pressures; actor-interaction; and rules of the field, subject to change by variables external to the analysis. From these preliminaries, three schemes are developed that utilize the Delphi method to provide the policymaker with tools for dealing with time spans, probabilities, and various combinations of conditions and assumptions that might arise in predicting political feasibility.As every policy problem differs from the next, so do the elements involved in a political feasibility analysis. But in order to get started, the analyst works within a basic framework for his/her investigation. These basic steps, as identified by Arnold Meltsner are outlined in the following sections. David Weimer and Aidan Vining argue that in practice analysts should answer the questions iteratively, “moving among them as (the analyst) learn(s) more about the political environment” meaning that what happens at one stage of the process of identifying political feasibility can affect earlier stages.

The first step for the policy analyst is to identify the space in which the policy problem exists. This is generally a broad policy space, such as health policy or environmental policy. Next the analyst defines the specific policy issue area. In keeping with the example, the narrower policy issue area is renewable energy. Once this is done, the analyst can begin to identify the players involved in the policy. Within this step there are other considerations to include, such as the level of public awareness of the proposed policy, the dynamics created by the timing of the policy proposal, and the concerns and voting patterns of different demographics.