Question

ECO1212 (2) Introducti... Overview Plans Resources Status and follow-up Participants More Question 1 On December 31 last year, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The virus was unknown. Several of those infected worked at the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which was shut down on January 1. As health experts worked to identify the virus amid growing alarm, today, more than 8.5 million coronavirus cases confirmed worldwide, with at least 450,000 deaths and 4 million recoveries. The disease was confirmed to have reached Turkey on 11 March 2020, after a man who had returned to Turkey from Europe, tested positive. As many countries and world capitals have been put under strict lockdown, major industrial production chains have been brought to a halt. Governments around the world have urged employees to work from home where possible. The travel industry has been badly damaged, with airlines cutting flights and customers cancelling business trips and holidays. In the United States, the price of a barrel of petrol turned negative for the first time in history.Together, we observed that the health crisis gradually turned into an economic crisis. After this short reminder at the top; write an essay discussing the economic impacts of the shock on Turkey's economy. In your article, discuss the effects of this economic shock on Turkish economy using the concepts of GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, money markets, interest rates, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. Use a narrative based on the economic theories we saw in the course. Connect your ideas to each other with a scientific background. Give policy suggestions to shorten the effect of this shock on Turkish economy. While giving the policies keep in mind and state the constraints that the Turkish economy currently facing. Articles that are not scientifically written or written on internet slogans may not bring you the points you want. You have 75 minutes to complete your essay. Late submissions will get 0/100. Write your essay directly on the system. You don't need graphs or equations. Good luck Your answer: stv

Answer 1

Since oil prices go negative, the US wTi crude oil prices remain unattractive as storage costs get higher and supply remains higher because oil plants cannot be closed and thus economy receives almost zero prices on selling in short run and economic growth deepdives as unemployment toonrises because of low revenues and low forex reserves.

Coronavirus has had huge impact on economic growth due to lockdown and shutdowns and social welfare losses.

The economic growth remains subdued as Aggregate demand and consumption both fall simultaneously also leading to fall in prices and inflation.

Investment is pumped out due to falling interest rate regime and lower economic outlook of companies.

Government spending is ramped up due to an expansionary fiscal policy by reducing taxes and spending. Also net exports go negative as imports surge due to supply shocks.

Negative growth in GDP causes high unemployment and lower inflation based on Philips curve movement.

Thus in short run, aggregate supply is high but aggregate demand is low and real GDP falls. However in long run the economy stabilises.

The government of Turkey has been great in fiscal stimulus of billions of dollars and central banks bonds buying programmes worth with rate cuts, CRR and SLR and liquidity coverage ratio cuts. Triggering automotic stabilizers and combined above policy will help alleviates financial distress and grow economic growth throufh higher consumption and disposable incomes.

The supplyvof credit availability rises causing its demand to go down considerably.

Since the interest rates are cut, the banks shall transmit easier loans availability at lower rates and thus loan markets will grow enormously.

However the cases has risen to 90 million worldwide approximately and states have been relaxed and thus caused havoc.

To avert this crisis, Turkey must impose lockdown and gradually open economy using partial lockdown only after 2 months of complete lockdown. Major boost towards creating vaccination and healthcare for curing patients is required with better quarantine facilities.

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