A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and...
A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month
period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that
resulted:
| FORECAST | ACTUAL | |
| April | 258 | 358 |
| May | 332 | 482 |
| June | 407 | 507 |
| July | 357 | 307 |
| August | 382 | 282 |
| September | 457 | 582 |
a. Find the tracking signal for each month.
(Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round
your answers to the 2 decimal places.)
b. Is the model being used is giving acceptable answers.
-
No, the model's performance is poor.
-
Yes, the model's performance is good.
Homework Answers
DEVIATION = ACTUAL - FORECAST
MAD = SIGMA(ABS DEV) / N
RSFE = CUMULATIVE DEVIATION
TRACKING SIGNAL = RSFE / MAD
|
PERIOD |
ACTUAL |
FORECAST |
DEVIATION |
RSFE |
ABSOLUTE DEVIATION |
SUM OF ABS DEV |
MAD |
TRACKING SIGNAL |
|
1 |
358 |
258 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
1 |
|
2 |
482 |
332 |
150 |
250 |
150 |
250 |
125 |
2 |
|
3 |
507 |
407 |
100 |
350 |
100 |
350 |
116.67 |
3 |
|
4 |
307 |
357 |
-50 |
300 |
50 |
400 |
100 |
3 |
|
5 |
282 |
382 |
-100 |
200 |
100 |
500 |
100 |
2 |
|
6 |
582 |
457 |
125 |
325 |
125 |
625 |
104.17 |
3.12 |
2. SINCE THE TRACKING SIGNAL IS WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE RANGE OF +-4, THE FORECASTING MODEL IS APPROPRIATE.
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