Question

Discuss the advantages and disadvantages or problems when using the base rate heuristic.

Answer 1

Note: This response is in UK English, please paste the response to MS Word and you should be able to spot discrepancies easily. You may elaborate on the answer based on personal views or your classwork if necessary.

(Answer) A based rate heuristic or fallacy is something that takes place when an individual considers the specific information offered in a statistical statement and ignores the general information that is very closely related to the variables.

For instance, recent statistics may show that in the last decade, the number of lung cancer cases have increased to very great extents. This is the base rate statistic. However, other essential base rate information also states that air pollution during the same decade has been higher than any other time in history. Similarly, other base rate information like the number of automobiles during this decade, the depletion of forests, etc. are ignored. The focus is generally shifted to the increase in lung cancer cases.

Information like the statistic of lung cancer can be extremely useful. Medical companies can up the production, people might prudently get themselves insurance cover, labs might invest in studying more about the problem, etc. This is how the base rate heuristic can be advantages in that it draws the necessary focus to a particular branch of the issue.

However, the base rate fallacy tends to bring about too much focus on the specific issue that people might ignore the general issues that might even bring about or are related to the base rate heuristic. The statistics about lung cancer might not necessarily cause the government to crack down on factory emissions; it might not necessarily cause people to spontaneously plant a tree in their garden or even automobile companies to consider manufacturing a battery car.

The disadvantage here is that people focus on the symptoms or effects more and tend to ignore the cause. This fallacy is typically even stronger if the general and specific information is not seemingly related. Introducing battery-operated cars does not seem like the likely solution to solving the lung cancer problem of the decade and therefore it might be ignored even if it is a viable solution.