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A building contractor is preparing a bid on a new construction project. Two other contractors will...

A building contractor is preparing a bid on a new construction project. Two other contractors will be submitting bids for this project. In this case, the lowest bid wins the contract. Based on past bidding practices, bids from the other contractors can be described by the following probability distributions (PLEASE SHOW IN EXCEL WITH FORMULAS FOR FULL RATING)

A. Suppose the building contractor submits a bid of $650,000, what is the probability that the contractor submits the lowest bid and wins the contract for the new construction project? Build a simulation model, in an Excel file to simulate 1000 trials of the contract bidding process

B. The building contractor is also considering bids of $625,000 and $615,000. Repeat the simulation process with bids of 625,000 and $615,000 as you did in part a. In each case what is the probability the building contractor will obtain the bid?

C. If the building contractor would like to bid such that the probability of winning the bid is about 0.80, what bid would you recommend?

Contractor

Probability Distribution of Bid

A

Uniform probability distribution between $600,000 and $800,000

B

Normal probability distribution with a mean bid of $700,000 and a standard deviation of $50,000
math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

Hence, Psob given bid is towe st ) Pgiven bid) P(v ivenbid) (800000. 65coo)/(800000-600000 )* (1-nosmdist(650000 τοοοοο Ution coith given meon ond Standosd deviation 500000)) so, p(given bid is looest) こ063 b- Ir given bid is 635000, then p (Riven bid is losest) (800000-635o)(80000-6cc000)i- 1n03 nist (625000, roo00 こ0.875 x 0.933193 5000 00) Ir iven bid is 615000, then P(given bid is locoest) (200000-61500o) (800000-600000)* (I-nosmdist (615000, T00o 5ac000)) . 925 * 0.955 u35 0 88 こ C-Nda (f the desised P(bid being loosest) is o .80, then bid shoold be at value 0( 手627,564 Fosi this Goaiseek featose of eycer can be osed aftex setting fosmota fos au ibe proRabilities and setting the filpapabiity cer valve to b cbang ng lhe value of cer fox bid

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