Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are
used to estimate a linear trend model as TˆT^ t
= 183.40 + 1.07t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices
are calculated as SˆS^ 1 = 0.80, SˆS^ 2 =
0.98, SˆS^ 3 = 1.02, and SˆS^ 4 =
1.04.
a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In
other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter
as compared to the average?
-
20% below
-
20% above
-
80% above
-
80% below
a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In
other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter
as compared to the average?
-
4% below
-
96% below
-
96% above
-
4% above
b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of
next year. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round
your answers to 2 decimal places.)
| yˆty^t | |
| Quarter 1 | |
| Quarter 2 | |
| Quarter 3 | |
| Quarter 4 | |
Homework Answers
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Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are
used to estimate a linear...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T1 = 194.40 + 1.23t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as S, = 0.94, S2 = 0.88, S3 = 1.20, and S4 = 1.02. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 94% below O 6% above 94% above 6% below a-2....
+= 164.90 + 1.091 Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used...
+= 164.90 + 1.091 Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as $ 1 = 0.88, § 2=0.94, § 3 = 1.16, and § 4 = 112. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 88% below 12% below O 12% above O 88%...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T = 164.90 +1.09. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as $ 1-0.88, Ŝ 2=0.94, § 3 = 116, and § 4 = 1.12. b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 169.09 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
A regression model with quarterly seasonal dummy variables was fit to quarterly sales data (in $10.000)...
A regression model with quarterly seasonal dummy variables was fit to quarterly sales data (in $10.000) for a small company. The results are shown below. The dummy variables and other devede are defined as follows: Q1 = 1 if the time period is Quarter 1, and O otherwise. Q2 and 3 are defined similarly. Abbreviations Used in the Output • "R-So" stands for "r squared • "R-Sq" stands for "adjusted rsquared SSE • s stands for "regression standard error," equal...
Question 15 0.1 pts Go the FRED website, then find and download Real GDP (Quarterly, Seasonally...
Question 15 0.1 pts Go the FRED website, then find and download Real GDP (Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars) from 2000-10-01 to 2005-10-01. Then index Real GDP with 2000-10-01 (fourth quarter of 2000) as the base time period How many quarters did it take before Rea GDP has risen 2% above its local peak in the fourth quarter of 2000? O 2 0 4 0 7 0 10
Question 3 (0.75 points) The following linear trend equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Y1...
Question 3 (0.75 points) The following linear trend equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Y1 = 300 - 2t, where t= 1 in the first quarter of year 2020. Quarterly seasonal indices for each quarter are given as Si = 0.7; S2 = 1.6; S3 = 0.5 and S4 = 1.2, respectively. Calculate the seasonally adjusted forecast for the second quarter of 2021? (LO 3.12 & 3.13) 296 O O 201.6
QUESTION 27 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the...
QUESTION 27 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 71.6 Q2 83.2 Q3 106 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,942 Time 67.1 What is the trend projection of the...
(1) Playing with data: Download quarterly, seasonally adjusted data on US real GDP, personal cons...
(1) Playing with data: Download quarterly, seasonally adjusted data on US real GDP, personal consumption expenditures, and gross private domestic investment for the period 1947q1 - 2010q2. You can download these series from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or the St. Louis Fed FRED database. (a) Take the natural logarithm of each series (ì=ln(series)î in Excel) and plot each against time. Which series appears to move around the most? Which series appears to move around the least? (b) The...
Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 4 6...
Consider the following time series data.
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
1
4
6
7
2
2
4
6
3
3
5
7
4
5
7
8
Which of the following is the correct time series plot?
a.
b.
c.
Show the four-quarter and centered moving average values for
this time series (to 3 decimals if necessary).
Year
Quarter
Time Series Value
Four-Quarter Moving Average
Centered Moving Average
1
1
4
2
2
3
3
4
5
2...
5. The quarterly sales data for three consecutive years are listed in the table below Year Quarter Sales MA CMA Index 0S0 1 1690 1938.75 2 940 19662 3 2625 1956.25 1952.5 1.34443 2500 2025 1961.25...
5. The quarterly sales data for three consecutive years are listed in the table below Year Quarter Sales MA CMA Index 0S0 1 1690 1938.75 2 940 19662 3 2625 1956.25 1952.5 1.34443 2500 2025 1961.25 1.27469 1800 1990 1990.625 0904239 900 2002.5 2007.5 0.448319 2900 2052.5 1996.25 1.452724 8 | 2360 | 2060 | 20275|1.163995 9 1850 2123.75 2056.25 0.899696 10 I 1100 2091.875 0.525844 11 2930 12 2615 MA refers to Moving Average computed with N 1 CMA...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T1 = 194.40 + 1.23t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as S, = 0.94, S2 = 0.88, S3 = 1.20, and S4 = 1.02. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 94% below O 6% above 94% above 6% below a-2....
+= 164.90 + 1.091 Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as $ 1 = 0.88, § 2=0.94, § 3 = 1.16, and § 4 = 112. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 88% below 12% below O 12% above O 88%...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T = 164.90 +1.09. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as $ 1-0.88, Ŝ 2=0.94, § 3 = 116, and § 4 = 1.12. b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 169.09 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
A regression model with quarterly seasonal dummy variables was fit to quarterly sales data (in $10.000) for a small company. The results are shown below. The dummy variables and other devede are defined as follows: Q1 = 1 if the time period is Quarter 1, and O otherwise. Q2 and 3 are defined similarly. Abbreviations Used in the Output • "R-So" stands for "r squared • "R-Sq" stands for "adjusted rsquared SSE • s stands for "regression standard error," equal...
Question 15 0.1 pts Go the FRED website, then find and download Real GDP (Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars) from 2000-10-01 to 2005-10-01. Then index Real GDP with 2000-10-01 (fourth quarter of 2000) as the base time period How many quarters did it take before Rea GDP has risen 2% above its local peak in the fourth quarter of 2000? O 2 0 4 0 7 0 10
Question 3 (0.75 points) The following linear trend equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Y1 = 300 - 2t, where t= 1 in the first quarter of year 2020. Quarterly seasonal indices for each quarter are given as Si = 0.7; S2 = 1.6; S3 = 0.5 and S4 = 1.2, respectively. Calculate the seasonally adjusted forecast for the second quarter of 2021? (LO 3.12 & 3.13) 296 O O 201.6
Consider the following time series data.
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
1
4
6
7
2
2
4
6
3
3
5
7
4
5
7
8
Which of the following is the correct time series plot?
a.
b.
c.
Show the four-quarter and centered moving average values for
this time series (to 3 decimals if necessary).
Year
Quarter
Time Series Value
Four-Quarter Moving Average
Centered Moving Average
1
1
4
2
2
3
3
4
5
2...
5. The quarterly sales data for three consecutive years are listed in the table below Year Quarter Sales MA CMA Index 0S0 1 1690 1938.75 2 940 19662 3 2625 1956.25 1952.5 1.34443 2500 2025 1961.25 1.27469 1800 1990 1990.625 0904239 900 2002.5 2007.5 0.448319 2900 2052.5 1996.25 1.452724 8 | 2360 | 2060 | 20275|1.163995 9 1850 2123.75 2056.25 0.899696 10 I 1100 2091.875 0.525844 11 2930 12 2615 MA refers to Moving Average computed with N 1 CMA...
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