Question

Hello please help me in the question below .provide me with a well detailed answer and do not simply copy and paste

Provide full details what happened to the issue of brexit . What will happen in the future and what will be its impact on small countries like Mauritius.

Answer 1

Impact of brexit on small countries like mauritius : Trade is a potentially significant aspect of any deepening of relations. However, overall trade between the UK and the small states of the Commonwealth is limited. In 2015 it was only 6.5% of total UK–Commonwealth trade, and the trade balance continues to favour the UK. Botswana (54.4% of its total exports) is the largest exporter to the UK, selling mainly beef and diamonds. Other major exporters are Belize (22.0%), Seychelles (21.0%), Mauritius (13.4%) and St Lucia (10.8%). It has to be noted that there are other small countries whose trade share is insignificant, but for whom the UK is an important market. So despite the relatively limited trade the UK has with the small countries of the Commonwealth – and indeed the Commonwealth more generally – the UK remains an important trading partner. However, it is unlikely that the UK will become a much more significant trading partner in the future. Indeed, as the UK prioritises comprehensive trade deals with the EU, US, and larger Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia, negotiations might crowd out the interests and concerns of the smaller Commonwealth states. This would be particularly damaging as the UK’s present trading relations with the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries are tied in with the EU. Indeed, once Brexit happens the UK will not have any formally agreed trade relations with these countries. Further, from the perspective of the small states of the Commonwealth, they will lose a useful intermediary with the EU, in the form of the UK. The EU will then have a much stronger Francophone and Lusophone edge, which may well have a negative impact on broader EU–ACP relations.

Remittances are a further issue of interest. The UK is a significant source of remittances globally, including to a number of Commonwealth countries, and remittances therefore represent one of the most significant economic linkages between the UK and the Commonwealth. Among the top 10 Commonwealth remittance recipients are four small states (Cyprus, Mauritius, Malta, and Barbados) and two least-developed countries (LDCs) (Uganda and Zambia). Notwithstanding, the literature and historical flows suggest that remittances are resilient and remittances are not that sensitive to economic cycles. This then suggests that remittances are driven by altruistic rather than economic motives. However, in the worst-case scenario, Brexit could result in tighter immigration controls which could then cause a reduction in remittances and possibly a permanently lower pound/US dollar exchange rate, further exacerbating the reduction.

A third issue is official development assistance (ODA). Small states receive a small amount of ODA directly from the UK, amounting to US$24 million in 2014. This still makes the UK the fourth largest bilateral donor following the US, Japan and Germany. But ODA to these countries through the UK’s contribution to the EU, and other multilateral institutions, is substantial. For instance, it is estimated that £1.4 billion is allocated each year to small developing states bilaterally and multilaterally, including via the EU. The question then arises, after Brexit will the UK continue to contribute this significant amount of aid? The UK, along with the majority of advanced countries, has committed to contributing 0.7% of its gross national income (GNI) as ODA. The UK is one of six countries to have met this target; in 2015 this commitment was enshrined into UK law, and the Conservative government and Labour opposition remain obligated to the 0.7% figure. However, there are downside risks reflected in the UK’s relatively poor growth forecasts that raise questions about its ability to meet such commitments. These concerns are worsened by the future loss of UK contributions to the EU and uncertainty around the economic impact of Brexit.

A final issue is debt. Small states are the most highly indebted in the Commonwealth, led by those in the Caribbean. The debt situation in the Caribbean is acute, with some debt-to-gross domestic product ratios close to, or above, 100%. It also coincides with a trajectory of relatively low growth, and these countries cannot afford large and unexpected shocks. The appreciation of indebted countries’ currencies against the UK pound is not likely to bring material gains because the majority of Caribbean countries have pegged their currencies to the US dollar. Further, World Bank Development Indicators show that in the Commonwealth, only 0.15% of external long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt is contracted in UK pounds. Thus, the prospects for exchange rate-induced debt relief are minimal.

So for the small states of the Commonwealth the link with the UK, within the context of the EU, is important in relation to both trade and aid. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will gain significant benefit from Brexit, but there are clear risks if the UK moves too far away from its current approach and does not put in place a new trade agreement with ACP countries and fails to maintain its overall level of development assistance.  

current position on the Brexit deal:

After months of negotiation, the UK and EU agreed a Brexit deal. It comes in two parts.

A 585-page withdrawal agreement. This is a legally-binding text that sets the terms of the UK's divorce from the EU. It covers how much money the UK owes the EU - an estimated £39bn - and what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK. It also proposes a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border.

The draft Brexit withdrawal agreement stands at 599 pages long. It sets out how the UK leaves the European Union, scheduled for 29 March 2019. Currently Chris morris from bbc has been working on this issue.

Expert analysis :

It seems a long time now since the size of the "divorce bill" was the big issue that was never going to be resolved, but the government knew that without a financial settlement, progress on other issues would be impossible.

Money remains a cause of controversy, though, because many Brexit supporters hate the fact that large sums will be handed over without any cast-iron guarantee about the nature of the UK's future trade relationship with the EU. Any refusal to pay, on the other hand, would sour relations and could - in extremis - end up in court.

Previous, present and future information about brexit :

On 29 March 2017, the Government of the United Kingdom invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 at 11 pm UK time,when the period for negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement will end unless an extension is agreed.May announced the government's intention not to seek permanent membership of the European single market or the EU customs union after leaving the EU and promised to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and incorporate existing European Union law into UK domestic law.A new government department, the Department for Exiting the European Union, was created in July 2016. Negotiations with the EU officially started in June 2017, aiming to complete the withdrawal agreement by October 2018. In June 2018, the UK and the EU published a joint progress report outlining agreement on issues including customs, VAT and Euratom. In July 2018, Cabinet agreed to the Chequers plan, an outline of proposals by the UK Government. In November 2018, the Draft Withdrawal Agreement and Outline Political Declaration, agreed between the UK Government and the EU, was published. On 15 January 2019, the House of Commons voted 432 to 202 against the deal, the largest parliamentary defeat for a sitting UK government in history.

The broad consensus among economists is that Brexit will likely reduce the UK's real per capita income in the medium term and long term,and that the Brexit referendum itself damaged the economy. Studies on effects since the referendum show annual losses of £404 for the average UK household from increased inflation, and losses between 2 and 2.5 per cent of UK GDP. Brexit is likely to reduce immigration from European Economic Area (EEA) countries to the UK,and poses challenges for UK higher education and academic research. As of November 2018, the size of the "divorce bill"—the UK's inheritance of existing EU trade agreements— and relations with Ireland and other EU member states remains uncertain. The precise impact on the UK depends on whether the process will be a "hard" or "soft" Brexit. Analysis by HM Treasury has found that no Brexit scenario is expected to improve the UK economic condition. A November 2018 Treasury publication regarding the potential impact of the Chequers proposalestimated that within 15 years the UK economy will be 3.9% worse off compared with staying in the EU.