Question

9,18 In Exercise 9.16, suppose that the estimates (a, b, m) are given in Table 9.16 and that activity times follow a beta distribution. Use the data in the table to calculate the expected activity times, di, and then compute the critical path for each event using dg as the completion time for activity (i, j). Assume that the solution that you obtain is the "planned" time to complete each event, and then find the probabilities that the events will occur without delay 443 TABLE 9.16 Project (a) Activity (a, b, m) Activity (a, b, m) 1,2 (5,8,6) (1,4,3) (2,5, 4) (4,6,5) (7, 10,8) (8, 13,9) (5, 10,9) 3,6 (3,5,4) (4,10,8) (5, 8,6) (9, 15, 10) (4,8,6) (3,5,4) 1,4 4,6 1,5 2,3 2,5 4,7 5,6 5,7 6,7 2,6 3,4 Project (b) Activity Activity (a, b, m) (a, b, m) (12,14, 13) (1,4,3) (5,8,7) (6,9,7) (1,3,2) (3,5,4) (7,9,8) (10,20, 15) 3,7 4,5 4,7 5,6 1,2 (10, 15, 12) (8, 12, 10) (7,11,8) (2,8,4) (5,7,6) 1,3 1,4 1,6 5,7 2,3 6,7 2,5 3,4 Reference: 9.16 Determine the critical path(s) for projects (a) and (b) in the AOA networks in Fig. 9.43. 3 7 8 10 10 4 abao/blo 1ovo 4 3 4 Project (a) 10 3 15 22 10 10 3 12 5 7 6 Project (b) Figure 9.43 Networks for Exercise 9.16. 4

Answer 1

Paths 35 days 31 days Project (a) Determination of Critical Paths Duration (Days) 1-2-3-4-6-7 1-2-3-6- 7 1-2-3 - 4 - 7 26 days 1-2-6-7 +-2-5-6- 7 1-2-5-7 1-4-7 5 days -5-7 .8 days So critical path is 1-2-3-4-6-7 with 35 days So expected duration is 35 days 28 days 33 days 21 days Tap

Project (6) Path ays 31 days I 25 days 1-3-7 1 days - 3- 4-7 26 days t-3-4-5-6-7 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 36 days -3-4-5-7 26 days 1-2-3-4-71 36 days 1-2-3-4-5-7 36 days 4 22-5-7 1-2-5-6-7 25 days -4-5-6-7 37 days 1-4-5-17 37 days 7-4-7 d-6-7 14 days T ! to critical bath aret 4-4-5-6- 7 B 1-4-5-7 B 1-4-7 with 37 days 49_ 37 dana